frogzu

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $5.49
Potential payout: $10.98K
Potential profit: $10.97K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$118.37

Yes position

Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $2.55
Potential payout: $5.09K
Potential profit: $5.09K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$55.4

Yes position

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $2.27
Potential payout: $4.54K
Potential profit: $4.53K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$155.9

No position

Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.94K
Potential profit: $1.94K
User PnL: -$324.52

Yes position

Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $1.6K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $6.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $993.5
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

US defaults on debt by 2027?

Implied probability: 3%
Current value: $19.53
Potential payout: $650.92
Potential profit: $631.4
Multiplier: 33.33x
User PnL: -$30.47

Yes position

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $45.51
Potential payout: $538.57
Potential profit: $493.06
Multiplier: 11.83x
User PnL: -$29.49

Yes position

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $464.72
Potential profit: $464.72
User PnL: -$39.45

Yes position

Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $14.79
Potential payout: $405.12
Potential profit: $390.33
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$38.12

Yes position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Implied probability: 6.4%
Current value: $24.42
Potential payout: $384.52
Potential profit: $360.1
Multiplier: 15.75x
User PnL: -$24.63

Yes position

New pandemic in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $370.57
Potential profit: $370.57
User PnL: -$13

Yes position

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $360
Potential profit: $360
User PnL: -$5.04

Yes position

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $18.42
Potential payout: $323.17
Potential profit: $304.75
Multiplier: 17.54x
User PnL: -$27.79

Yes position

Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $298.92
Potential profit: $298.92
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $286.14
Potential profit: $286.14
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $256.89
Potential profit: $256.89
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Hyperliquid's HIP-3 upgrade go live on mainnet by September 30?

Ends Oct 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $252.25
Potential profit: $252.25
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $225.35
Potential profit: $225.35
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $211.43
Potential profit: $211.43
User PnL: -$22.4

Yes position

Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $205.93
Potential profit: $205.93
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Obama federally charged before 2027?

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $7.62
Potential payout: $200.58
Potential profit: $192.96
Multiplier: 26.32x
User PnL: -$17.38

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$4.8

No position

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of November?

Ends Nov 28, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $194.73
Potential profit: $194.73
User PnL: -$26

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Nigeria by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $85.78

No position

Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.95

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.9

No position

StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 81.5%
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $42.85

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $41.78

No position

Lighter Airdrop on December 29?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.15

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.48

Yes position

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: $19.97

No position

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.41

Yes position

Will India strike Pakistan by Dec 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17.06

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET

Ends Nov 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.08

Yes position

Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.76

Yes position

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.19

No position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.39

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: $6.79

Yes position

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.14

No position

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?

Ends Nov 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.3

No position

Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.06

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET

Ends Nov 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.98

Yes position

Maduro out by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.62

Yes position

Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?

Ends Oct 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.4

No position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $3.73

Yes position

Maduro out in 2025?