No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.6%
- Current value
- $101.82
- Potential payout
- $110.01
- Potential profit
- $8.2
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $1.82
Polymarket Trader
0x9a1A817674663c73925Cac36B5214993048Eb251-1778890509627
0x9a1a817674663c73925cac36b5214993048eb251
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $220.47
- Realized PnL
- $960.86
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 12
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $0.97
- Potential payout
- $66.67
- Potential profit
- $65.7
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
No position
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Current value
- $34.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $15.26
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- $2.24
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 57%
- Current value
- $24.78
- Potential payout
- $43.48
- Potential profit
- $18.7
- Multiplier
- 1.75x
- User PnL
- $4.78
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $25.29
- Potential payout
- $39.22
- Potential profit
- $13.92
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- $5.29
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.7%
- Current value
- $0.99
- Potential payout
- $27.03
- Potential profit
- $26.04
- Multiplier
- 27.40x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $17.87
- Potential payout
- $20.78
- Potential profit
- $2.91
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.87
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.6%
- Current value
- $0.99
- Potential payout
- $17.86
- Potential profit
- $16.87
- Multiplier
- 18.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.7%
- Current value
- $0.99
- Potential payout
- $17.54
- Potential profit
- $16.55
- Multiplier
- 17.70x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $1.5
- Potential payout
- $16.67
- Potential profit
- $15.17
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $10.07
- Potential payout
- $13.16
- Potential profit
- $3.09
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $5.07
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $0.47
- Potential payout
- $1.28
- Potential profit
- $0.81
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Tundra Esports position
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $301.57
Team Falcons position
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $144.82
PARIVISION position
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $118.2
No position
Will San Diego FC win on 2026-05-16?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.9
No position
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.99
Spurs position
Spurs vs. Thunder
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.76
Team Spirit position
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.91
Aurora position
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $25.99
Burnley FC position
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.6
Knicks position
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.3
PlayTime position
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.77
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.19
Yes position
Will Racing Club vs. Caracas FC end in a draw?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.04
No position
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23?
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.86
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $8.01
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.05
Spurs position
Thunder vs. Spurs
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.67
Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- $5.98
Yes position
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-23?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.67
No position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $4.99
Yes position
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.76
Yes position
Will CA Boston River win on 2026-05-20?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.71
Yes position
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-20?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.65
Yes position
Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-05-20?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.47
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 3.7% 27.03 shares
- Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 5.7% 17.54 shares
- Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 5.6% 17.86 shares
- Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 1.5% 66.67 shares
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes 47% 50 shares
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 96.3% 70.58 shares
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 85% 70.59 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 38% 13.16 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 6% 16.67 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No 90.9% 110.01 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 95% 67.56 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No 97.6% 107.52 shares