Polymarket Trader

Guggs

@shumakergreg

0x9a250e03e9a151482d8b27903e8328b86e216d20

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $68.12
Realized PnL: $963.26
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $666.67
Potential profit: $666.67
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $447.34
Potential profit: $447.34
User PnL: -$9

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: December

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $337.14
Potential profit: $337.14
User PnL: -$93.57

Yes position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $325
Potential profit: $325
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will annual inflation increase by between 33% and 35.9% in December?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $281.82
Potential profit: $281.82
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $238.1
Potential profit: $238.1
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $37.21
Potential payout: $232.56
Potential profit: $195.35
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: -$62.79

Yes position

Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?

Ends Dec 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $223.89
Potential profit: $223.89
User PnL: -$4

No position

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $211.3
Potential profit: $211.3
User PnL: -$40

No position

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $208.33
Potential profit: $208.33
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 70-80 million views on week 1?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $205.93
Potential profit: $205.93
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200.69
Potential profit: $200.69
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $21
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $179
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.9%
Current value: $9.92
Potential payout: $169.49
Potential profit: $159.58
Multiplier: 17.09x
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?

Ends Nov 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 8?

Ends Nov 8, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $163.72
Potential profit: $163.72
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $148.32
Potential profit: $148.32
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?

Ends Oct 28, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.86
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 3?

Ends Oct 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $132.88
Potential profit: $132.88
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $120.65
Potential profit: $120.65
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?

Ends Oct 28, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $119.33
Potential profit: $119.33
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.11
User PnL: -$10

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.71

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.47

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.58

No position

Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.62

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 8?

Ends Nov 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.56

No position

Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.84

Something position

Nothing Ever Happens: February

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.67

Yes position

Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.26

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.2

Yes position

Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.85

Yes position

Israel strikes Gaza by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.57

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.89

Yes position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.65

Yes position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.07

No position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.58

Yes position

Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $32.86

Yes position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.83

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28

No position

Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.8

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.82

No position

Iran military response by Sunday?

Ends Aug 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.18

No position

Will Trump meet with Changpeng Zhao in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.36

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24

Girl position

Rihanna Baby: Boy or Girl?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.91

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 5.9% 169.49 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?

Yes 72% 138.89 shares
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ilia Topuria 81% 24.69 shares
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Derrick Lewis 21% 47.62 shares
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)

Michael Chandler 23% 43.48 shares
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Yes 10% 200 shares
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Yes 24% 125 shares
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?

Yes 68% 143.32 shares
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?

Yes 69.8% 143.32 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-22?

Yes 88% 113.64 shares
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Yes 86% 58.14 shares
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?

No 94.6% 211.31 shares