ObsidianTitus

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $468.22
Potential payout: $1.05K
Potential profit: $583.97
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: -$196.83

No position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $634.46
Potential payout: $742.05
Potential profit: $107.6
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $14.51

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $538.15
Potential payout: $737.19
Potential profit: $199.04
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: $34.75

No position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $610.72
Potential payout: $714.29
Potential profit: $103.57
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$2.47

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $606.03
Potential payout: $692.6
Potential profit: $86.58
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $103.07

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $516.47
Potential payout: $604.05
Potential profit: $87.59
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $22.71

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $369.56
Potential payout: $496.06
Potential profit: $126.49
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: -$25.46

No position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $432.18
Potential profit: $432.18
User PnL: -$113.33

No position

Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $335.86
Potential payout: $337.89
Potential profit: $2.03
User PnL: $23.07

No position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $312.11
Potential profit: $312.11
User PnL: -$216.96

No position

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $274.97
Potential payout: $287.93
Potential profit: $12.96
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $12.64

No position

Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $208.02
Potential payout: $243.3
Potential profit: $35.28
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $12.72

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $171.03
Potential payout: $232.69
Potential profit: $61.66
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $9.83

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $126.15
Potential payout: $212.01
Potential profit: $85.86
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $21.18

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $180.69
Potential payout: $182.61
Potential profit: $1.92
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $34.99

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $160.77
Potential payout: $161.74
Potential profit: $0.97
User PnL: $7.12

No position

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $158.97
Potential payout: $159.28
Potential profit: $0.32
User PnL: $8.09

No position

Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $138.21
Potential profit: $138.21
User PnL: -$109.5

No position

Trump meets with Putin by December 31?

Implied probability: 64%
Current value: $84.63
Potential payout: $132.23
Potential profit: $47.6
Multiplier: 1.56x
User PnL: -$2.28

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $120.52
Potential payout: $121.3
Potential profit: $0.79
User PnL: $12.68

No position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $115
Potential profit: $115
User PnL: -$12.8

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Implied probability: 62%
Current value: $69.67
Potential payout: $112.36
Potential profit: $42.7
Multiplier: 1.61x
User PnL: -$0.51

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $67.38
Potential payout: $82.17
Potential profit: $14.79
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $1.29

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $478.04

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $465.74

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $152.27

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $148.99

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $138.92

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.85

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.12

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.57

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.75

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.2%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $74.34

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.95

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.93

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.38

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.66

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.89

No position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.87

No position

Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.66

Justin Gaethje position

UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.93

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18.62

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.06

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.97

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.36

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 93.8%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $9.62

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?