Yes position
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.62K
- Potential profit
- $5.62K
- User PnL
- $0
Polymarket Trader
0x9af0...45fa
0x9af06e2bbade4dd1142eae70013cefe912b345fa
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $117.22
- Realized PnL
- $668.73
- Win rate
- 58.3%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.92K
- Potential profit
- $2.92K
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Trump pardon Diddy by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.13K
- Potential profit
- $2.13K
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.06K
- Potential profit
- $2.06K
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.57K
- Potential profit
- $1.57K
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.4K
- Potential profit
- $1.4K
- User PnL
- -$98
Yes position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $51.48
- Potential payout
- $791.99
- Potential profit
- $740.51
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$170
Yes position
SBF released from custody in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $643.82
- Potential profit
- $643.82
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Nancy Pelosi attend the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $543.9
- Potential profit
- $543.9
- User PnL
- -$4.9
No position
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $389.67
- Potential profit
- $389.67
- User PnL
- -$19.6
No position
Will Barron Trump attend the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $368.15
- Potential profit
- $368.15
- User PnL
- -$9.8
Yes position
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $28.54
- Potential payout
- $356.72
- Potential profit
- $328.18
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$7.13
Yes position
SBF released from custody in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $13.46
- Potential payout
- $332.33
- Potential profit
- $318.87
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- -$6.48
Yes position
Will Trump's remarks not air?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $326.67
- Potential profit
- $326.67
- User PnL
- -$4.9
Yes position
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.7%
- Current value
- $11.27
- Potential payout
- $308.9
- Potential profit
- $297.62
- Multiplier
- 27.40x
- User PnL
- -$16.51
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5?
Ends Oct 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $276.11
- Potential profit
- $276.11
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $256.72
- Potential profit
- $256.72
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 50+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $232.26
- Potential profit
- $232.26
- User PnL
- -$24.5
Yes position
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $213.64
- Potential profit
- $213.64
- User PnL
- -$14.95
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $12.47
- Potential payout
- $191.87
- Potential profit
- $179.4
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- $12.47
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $178.18
- Potential profit
- $178.18
- User PnL
- -$19.6
Yes position
Will Donald Trump's tie be blue?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $177.53
- Potential profit
- $177.53
- User PnL
- -$9.43
Yes position
Will Donald Trump's tie be yellow?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $176.52
- Potential profit
- $176.52
- User PnL
- -$9.43
No position
Will Al Green attend the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $176.07
- Potential profit
- $176.07
- User PnL
- -$4.9
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Trump say "Middle East" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $204.39
No position
Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.99
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.09
Yes position
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.79
No position
Will Trump say "Fake News" during WHCA Dinner events?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.46
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.01
No position
Will Trump say "Ballroom" or "Arc" or "Arch" during WHCA Dinner events?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.06
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.64
Yes position
Will Trump say "King" during King Charles visit?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.02
No position
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during WHCA Dinner events?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.81
No position
Will Trump say "First Amendment" during WHCA Dinner events?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.28
Yes position
Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.24
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.92
No position
Will Trump say "Too Late" or "Powell" during WHCA Dinner events?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.46
Yes position
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.49
No position
Will Trump say "First Lady" or "Movie Star" during WHCA Dinner events?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.14
Yes position
Will Trump say "Epstein" during WHCA Dinner events?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.72
Yes position
Will Trump say "Steroid" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5.91
Yes position
Will Elon Musk attend the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.92
Yes position
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during WHCA Dinner events?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$12.22
No position
Will Trump say "Karoline" or "Leavitt" during WHCA Dinner events?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$17.92
Yes position
Will Trump say "Stair" during WHCA Dinner events?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$18.95
Yes position
Will Trump say "Midterm" or "Election" 3+ times during WHCA Dinner events?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$23.53
Yes position
Will Trump say "No No No" during WHCA Dinner events?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$23.64
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?Yes 7% 186.93 shares
- Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30?Yes 7% 213.64 shares
- SBF released from custody in 2026?Yes 6% 332.33 shares
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes 15% 32.67 shares
- Will Trump say "King" during King Charles visit?Yes 92% 319.57 shares
- Will King Charles say "Ballroom" during the joint meeting of Congress?Yes 13.6% 72 shares
- Will King Charles say "Historic" or "History" or "Historical" during the joint meeting of Congress?No 18.8% 52.11 shares
- Will Trump say "Queen" during King Charles visit?No 23% 42.61 shares
- Will Trump say "King" during King Charles visit?Yes 90.4% 77.5 shares
- Will Trump say "No No No" during WHCA Dinner events?Yes 0.2% 82.08 shares
- Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?Yes 74% 18.71 shares
- Will Trump say "Stair" during WHCA Dinner events?Yes 0.1% 73.15 shares