Anonnnn2409

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $268.57
Potential payout: $502.01
Potential profit: $233.43
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $14.28

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $394.38
Potential payout: $445.63
Potential profit: $51.25
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $42.37

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $8.4
Potential payout: $240
Potential profit: $231.6
Multiplier: 28.57x
User PnL: -$22.8

Yes position

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $4.83
Potential payout: $235.65
Potential profit: $230.81
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$0.68

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $163.46
Potential payout: $210.91
Potential profit: $47.46
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $13.4

Yes position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $3.28
Potential payout: $198.64
Potential profit: $195.36
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$1.09

Yes position

Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $2.38
Potential payout: $198
Potential profit: $195.62
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: $0.4

Yes position

Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $24.75
Potential payout: $165
Potential profit: $140.25
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: $8.25

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $36.12
Potential payout: $164.54
Potential profit: $128.42
Multiplier: 4.56x
User PnL: -$9.64

Yes position

Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $36.91
Potential payout: $153.79
Potential profit: $116.88
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: $0.62

No position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $132.35
Potential payout: $147.88
Potential profit: $15.53
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: -$0.47

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 26%
Current value: $36.89
Potential payout: $141.88
Potential profit: $104.99
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: -$9.95

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $75.76
Potential payout: $139
Potential profit: $63.25
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $9.16

Yes position

Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 23%
Current value: $31.97
Potential payout: $139
Potential profit: $107.03
Multiplier: 4.35x
User PnL: -$9.12

Yes position

Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $22.27
Potential payout: $135
Potential profit: $112.72
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$3.37

No position

Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 56%
Current value: $75.25
Potential payout: $134.37
Potential profit: $59.12
Multiplier: 1.79x
User PnL: $6.72

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 29%
Current value: $37.69
Potential payout: $129.96
Potential profit: $92.27
Multiplier: 3.45x
User PnL: $1.11

No position

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $111.38
Potential payout: $124.44
Potential profit: $13.07
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $5.31

Yes position

Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $34.19
Potential payout: $120.01
Potential profit: $85.82
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$13.13

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $13.8
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $106.2
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: $1.25

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 12.3%
Current value: $14.65
Potential payout: $119.58
Potential profit: $104.94
Multiplier: 8.16x
User PnL: -$3.22

Yes position

Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.3
Potential payout: $118
Potential profit: $117.71
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$1.12

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $90.1
Potential payout: $106
Potential profit: $15.9
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $5.46

No position

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $96.52
Potential payout: $105.49
Potential profit: $8.97
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $3.69

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Russia enter Khatnie by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $204.27

No position

Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.76

Yes position

Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.94

Yes position

Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.84

Yes position

Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.81

Yes position

Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.31

Yes position

Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.39

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.27

No position

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

No position

Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $47.72

Under position

Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.05

Yes position

Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.47

No position

Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.15

No position

Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.22

No position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.84

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.15

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.2

Yes position

Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.03

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.67

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.58

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.34

No position

Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $29.27

Yes position

Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.09

Yes position

Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31?