0x9b3f...0fa5

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $46.25
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $203.75
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $6.25

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $37.13
Potential payout: $158
Potential profit: $120.87
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$2.75

Yes position

Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $17.85
Potential payout: $102
Potential profit: $84.15
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$2.03

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.25
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$22.78

Yes position

Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $5.49
Potential payout: $97.25
Potential profit: $91.75
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$16.66

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.69
Potential payout: $81.51
Potential profit: $80.81
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$19.12

Yes position

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $13.12
Potential payout: $79.5
Potential profit: $66.38
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$2.55

Yes position

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $12.49
Potential payout: $69.4
Potential profit: $56.91
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: -$1.36

No position

Will the Republican Party win the TX-24 House seat?

Implied probability: 26%
Current value: $17.23
Potential payout: $66.26
Potential profit: $49.03
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: -$0.44

No position

Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $10.8
Potential payout: $65.48
Potential profit: $54.68
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$7.82

Yes position

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $9.57
Potential payout: $64
Potential profit: $54.43
Multiplier: 6.69x
User PnL: -$0.35

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $8.85
Potential payout: $63.19
Potential profit: $54.34
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$8.83

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $4.69
Potential payout: $62.49
Potential profit: $57.8
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$5.31

No position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $1.74
Potential payout: $62.11
Potential profit: $60.37
Multiplier: 35.71x
User PnL: -$12.34

Yes position

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $8.2
Potential payout: $58.56
Potential profit: $50.36
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$1.81

Yes position

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $10.44
Potential payout: $58
Potential profit: $47.56
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: $0.58

No position

Will the Democratic Party win the SC-06 House seat?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $3.85
Potential payout: $55
Potential profit: $51.15
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$6.05

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.24
Potential payout: $53.18
Potential profit: $52.94
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$13.81

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $9.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $40.25
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $10.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $39.25
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: $0.75

Yes position

SHEIN IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $8.44
Potential payout: $47.01
Potential profit: $38.57
Multiplier: 5.57x
User PnL: -$8.32

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $5.41
Potential payout: $47
Potential profit: $41.6
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$4.46

Yes position

Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Implied probability: 15.7%
Current value: $7.04
Potential payout: $45
Potential profit: $37.96
Multiplier: 6.39x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $9.45
Potential payout: $45
Potential profit: $35.55
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: -$0.45

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.78

Yes position

Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $42.03

No position

Will "Sinners" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.02

No position

Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.95

Yes position

Will SC Braga win on 2026-03-18?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.95

Yes position

Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.8

Yes position

Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.85

No position

Will Democrats 66 (D66) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.82

No position

Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.44

No position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.42

No position

Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.38

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 18?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.36

No position

Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-03-18?

Ends Mar 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18.25

No position

Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.18

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 17?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17.75

No position

No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.44

Yes position

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.19

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.01

No position

Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.01

Yes position

Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: $13.22

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 57%
Multiplier: 1.75x
User PnL: $12.66

Yes position

Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-19?

Ends Mar 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.21

Yes position

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?