Polymarket Trader

tinman2

0x9baebe30d1cefe0ac5be4be85189c9fa33e95d34

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $12.72K
Realized PnL: $68.11K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.7K
Potential profit: $6.7K
User PnL: -$659.89

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $4.49K
Potential payout: $4.5K
Potential profit: $2.25
User PnL: $2.59K

Yes position

Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $33.27
Potential payout: $3.5K
Potential profit: $3.47K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$39.39

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $692.73
Potential payout: $2.61K
Potential profit: $1.92K
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$467.56

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.29
Potential payout: $2.57K
Potential profit: $2.57K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.55K

Yes position

Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.09K
Potential profit: $2.09K
User PnL: -$129.29

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $2.07K
Potential payout: $2.07K
Potential profit: $1.03
User PnL: $1.34K

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.8%
Current value: $275
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.73K
Multiplier: 7.27x
User PnL: -$58

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.87K
Potential profit: $1.87K
User PnL: -$1.63K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $1.81K
Potential payout: $1.81K
Potential profit: $0.9
User PnL: $696.15

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.19K
Potential profit: $1.19K
User PnL: -$574.14

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.14K
Potential profit: $1.14K
User PnL: -$838.38

Yes position

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $64.38
Potential payout: $1.11K
Potential profit: $1.05K
Multiplier: 17.24x
User PnL: -$749.01

No position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $785.62
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $254.38
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $39.62

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.51
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $1.02K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$246.33

Yes position

Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in May?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.12
Potential profit: $999.12
User PnL: -$907

No position

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $938.4
Potential payout: $982.62
Potential profit: $44.22
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $339.88

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $134.85
Potential payout: $930
Potential profit: $795.15
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$19.25

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 10.9%
Current value: $100.65
Potential payout: $923.37
Potential profit: $822.72
Multiplier: 9.17x
User PnL: -$17.54

Yes position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $156
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $644
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$72.73

Yes position

US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $83.98
Potential payout: $699.83
Potential profit: $615.85
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$118.15

Yes position

US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $56.44
Potential payout: $664
Potential profit: $607.56
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$14.6

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $534.61
Potential payout: $625.28
Potential profit: $90.67
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $48.83

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 89.7%
Current value: $493.08
Potential payout: $550
Potential profit: $56.93
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $41.77

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Biden finish his term?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.06K

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.9K

No position

Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?

Ends Aug 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.96K

No position

US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?

Ends Jan 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.55K

No position

Another Iran strike on Israel in October?

Ends Oct 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.95K

Yes position

No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.84K

Yes position

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.77K

Yes position

Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5K

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.37K

No position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.01K

Kyrgios position

Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgios

Ends Dec 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.97K

Yes position

Will Biden pardon Fauci?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.94K

Yes position

Will Joe Biden be inaugurated as President of the USA on January 20th, 2021?

Ends Jan 20, 2021

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.92K

Buccaneers position

Will the Green Bay Packers or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the NFC Championship?

Ends Jan 25, 2021

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.9K

No position

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.88K

Yes position

Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.79K

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.78K

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.74K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.68K

No position

Will Donald Trump be inaugurated for his second term as President of the USA on Inauguration Day, January 20th, 2021?

Ends Feb 1, 2021

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.63K

No position

Maduro out by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.58K

Yes position

Trump wins every swing state?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.51K

Yes position

Khamenei public appearance by Friday?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.47K

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.41K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Yes 40% 50 shares
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Yes 74.3% 100 shares
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?

No 23% 100 shares
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Yes 73.4% 42.3 shares
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Yes 73.3% 33 shares
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

No 47.9% 40 shares
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

No 47% 24.48 shares
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

No 87% 50 shares
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

No 87% 50 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 79% 50 shares
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

No 89.9% 50 shares
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Yes 36% 50 shares