Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.2K
- Potential profit
- $3.2K
- User PnL
- -$50
Polymarket Trader
noddd
0x9bc8fdff3d91cc7732f7cb5a1fe90cbc13ee3627
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $984.67
- Realized PnL
- $4.45K
- Win rate
- 58.3%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 74%
- Current value
- $539.91
- Potential payout
- $729.6
- Potential profit
- $189.7
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $139.91
Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.75
- Potential payout
- $500.01
- Potential profit
- $499.26
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $2.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $497.25
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$1.92
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $303.99
- Potential payout
- $351.43
- Potential profit
- $47.44
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $3.99
Yes position
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $16.87
- Potential payout
- $187.42
- Potential profit
- $170.55
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- $5.44
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $91.91
- Potential payout
- $147.06
- Potential profit
- $55.15
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $41.91
Yes position
Will xAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.7%
- Current value
- $11.83
- Potential payout
- $66.85
- Potential profit
- $55.02
- Multiplier
- 5.65x
- User PnL
- $6.83
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 30%
- Current value
- $16.67
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $38.89
- Multiplier
- 3.33x
- User PnL
- $6.67
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.08K
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $810.62
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $594.27
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $283.3
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $245.31
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $140.73
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $116.26
No position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.29
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- User PnL
- $56.47
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.05
No position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.5
No position
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.31
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $2.58
No position
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.65
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Yes position
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.22
Yes position
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.32
No position
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.46
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.53
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.65
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.76
Yes position
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5.15
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$6.35
Yes position
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7.5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?Yes 85.4% 351.43 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 64% 312.5 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes 34% 147.06 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Yes 18% 55.56 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 47.9% 417.1 shares
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 0.2% 500 shares
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes 6.7% 149.54 shares
- Will xAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 7.5% 66.85 shares
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 0.9% 264.72 shares
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes 3.7% 31.92 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Yes 99% 605.35 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Yes 99.2% 702.91 shares