0x9c123ff59eCEf0c2bcccc256830F19f2F4b8b99E-1767694797172

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $132.81
Potential payout: $1.56K
Potential profit: $1.43K
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$117.19

Yes position

Trump out as President by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $555.56
Potential profit: $555.56
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $350
Potential profit: $350
User PnL: -$19.95

Yes position

Will Trump attend his son's wedding?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.33
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $310
Potential profit: $310
User PnL: -$46.5

No position

Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $302.58
Potential profit: $302.58
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $127.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $172.5
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $22.5

No position

Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $264.32
Potential profit: $264.32
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will Trump's remarks not air?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $231.87
Potential profit: $231.87
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $210.45
Potential payout: $230
Potential profit: $19.55
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $19.35

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $13.97
Potential payout: $210
Potential profit: $196.04
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$4.31

Yes position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $25
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $175
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$39

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.1%
Current value: $18.09
Potential payout: $180
Potential profit: $161.91
Multiplier: 9.95x
User PnL: -$12.51

Yes position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $7.73
Potential payout: $156.25
Potential profit: $148.52
Multiplier: 20.20x
User PnL: -$12.27

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 32.8%
Current value: $49.13
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $100.88
Multiplier: 3.05x
User PnL: $23.47

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$40.5

No position

Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $82.99
Potential payout: $141.87
Potential profit: $58.88
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $57.99

No position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $116.9
Potential payout: $140
Potential profit: $23.1
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$2.1

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $120.71
Potential profit: $120.71
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

GTA VI released before November 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $2.97
Potential payout: $108
Potential profit: $105.03
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: -$5.67

No position

Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026?

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $35.36
Potential payout: $102.54
Potential profit: $67.17
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: $14.37

Yes position

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $19
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $81
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $5.65
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $94.35
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$4.35

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132

No position

Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.08

No position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.29

No position

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.52

Yes position

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52

Yes position

Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.99

Yes position

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 3, 2026?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.79

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.5

Yes position

Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31

Down position

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Ends Mar 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30

No position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.21

No position

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.4

No position

Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.56

Yes position

Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.31

No position

Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.2

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.16

No position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.27

No position

Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.72

Yes position

Will Vance say "Nuclear" during his Rocky Mount visit?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.2

No position

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $19.89

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 14?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.4

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.6

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?