No position
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $178.69
- Potential payout
- $178.69
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $33.95
Polymarket Trader
waterwater
0x9c2a4657203c5b66385b59f1eaf265c81d213a19
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $178.69
- Realized PnL
- $296.45
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$10.5
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.4
- Potential profit
- $24.4
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $111
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.04
Yes position
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.06
No position
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.64
Yes position
Trump negative approval before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.23
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.51
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.29
Yes position
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.39
No position
Will the CDU/CSU win by less than 2%?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.31
No position
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.05
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.1
Yes position
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.27
No position
Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.92
Yes position
Government coalition formed within 100 days of German election?
Ends Jun 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.65
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.09
No position
Will Trump Media invest in Ethereum before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.89
Yes position
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21?
Ends Feb 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.65
Yes position
Will Grok be #1 Free app on Friday?
Ends Feb 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.6
Yes position
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.45
No position
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.38
No position
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.35
No position
Will Elon reach #1 in Path of Exile 2 before March?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.26
No position
Alibaba AI model better than DeepSeek before March?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.22
No position
OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?No 81% 178.69 shares
- Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?Yes 87.3% 145.99 shares
- Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes 9.7% 1,311.76 shares
- Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes 77.8% 1,311.76 shares
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?Yes 35% 30 shares
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?Yes 4.1% 24.39 shares
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?No 97.9% 1,054.61 shares
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?No 98.1% 1,054.61 shares
- Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?No 99.7% 504.82 shares
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?Yes 2% 95.23 shares
- Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?No 98.5% 504.83 shares
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?Yes 10.5% 95.24 shares