Yes position
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $571.13
- Potential payout
- $8.85K
- Potential profit
- $8.28K
- Multiplier
- 15.50x
- User PnL
- -$428.86
Polymarket Trader
azr
0x9c9a9cba2a0b69f50cac26ecb43a85d0d52e9c77
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $684.96
- Realized PnL
- $7.82K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6K
- Potential profit
- $6K
- User PnL
- -$949.85
Yes position
Will Astronomer CEO Andy Byron sue Coldplay?
Ends Aug 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.1K
- Potential profit
- $4.1K
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.75K
- Potential profit
- $2.75K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Fed rate cut by July meeting?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.18K
- Potential profit
- $2.18K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.13K
- Potential profit
- $2.13K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.09K
- Potential profit
- $2.09K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.94K
- Potential profit
- $1.94K
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Current value
- $60.91
- Potential payout
- $1.82K
- Potential profit
- $1.76K
- Multiplier
- 29.85x
- User PnL
- -$39.09
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.72K
- Potential profit
- $1.72K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.67K
- Potential profit
- $1.67K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.43K
- Potential profit
- $1.43K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.21K
- Potential profit
- $1.21K
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.07K
- Potential profit
- $1.07K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $979.48
- Potential profit
- $979.48
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $909.09
- Potential profit
- $909.09
- User PnL
- -$100
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 3?
Ends Feb 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $901.11
- Potential profit
- $901.11
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.4%
- Current value
- $52.92
- Potential payout
- $833.33
- Potential profit
- $780.42
- Multiplier
- 15.75x
- User PnL
- -$47.08
Yes position
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $769.23
- Potential profit
- $769.23
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $749.54
- Potential profit
- $749.54
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $714.29
- Potential profit
- $714.29
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Another US bank failure by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $714.29
- Potential profit
- $714.29
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in October?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $710.2
- Potential profit
- $710.2
- User PnL
- -$100
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Megaquake before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.96K
No position
Greta Thunberg arrested by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $330.28
Yes position
Ethereum all time high before October?
Ends Oct 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $288.85
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $271.56
No position
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $243.11
No position
Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $220.01
Yes position
Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $201
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $185.71
Yes position
Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?
Ends Aug 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $160.05
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112.77
Yes position
Earthquake 7.0 or above before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112.77
Yes position
Will Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $96.51
Yes position
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.93
No position
Will Powell say "Spike" during July Press Conference?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.82
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.6
No position
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.93
No position
Will Powell say "Obvious" during July Press Conference?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.85
No position
Will the Government shutdown end by November 7?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.86
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?
Ends Oct 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.86
Yes position
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.48
No position
Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31?
Ends Dec 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.85
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.33
No position
Will Powell say "China" during July Press Conference?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.58
Yes position
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.03
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?Yes 6% 1,666.67 shares
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes 19% 526.32 shares
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?Yes 5.5% 1,818.18 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 12% 833.33 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?Yes 7% 1,428.57 shares
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?Yes 11.3% 8,854.74 shares
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?No 93.9% 106.47 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Yes 93% 107.53 shares
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes 35% 285.71 shares
- Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Yes 54.3% 184.13 shares
- Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?No 9.3% 1,072.47 shares
- Another US bank failure by February 28?Yes 14% 714.29 shares