No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21.22K
- Potential profit
- $21.22K
- User PnL
- -$15.05K
Polymarket Trader
JoeBlack01
0x9ca119b8cd7bdb890aecf1ff3b0f6e3a45cc13b5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $66.87K
- Realized PnL
- $127.82K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $15.66K
- Potential payout
- $18K
- Potential profit
- $2.34K
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $522.16
Yes position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.6%
- Current value
- $832.5
- Potential payout
- $15K
- Potential profit
- $14.17K
- Multiplier
- 18.02x
- User PnL
- $90.55
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.7%
- Current value
- $2.32K
- Potential payout
- $14.81K
- Potential profit
- $12.49K
- Multiplier
- 6.39x
- User PnL
- $1.16K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.08K
- Potential profit
- $14.08K
- User PnL
- -$2.35K
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.06K
- Potential profit
- $14.06K
- User PnL
- -$7.45K
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.1%
- Current value
- $691.85
- Potential payout
- $13.7K
- Potential profit
- $13.01K
- Multiplier
- 19.80x
- User PnL
- -$150.93
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 23.9%
- Current value
- $3.23K
- Potential payout
- $13.55K
- Potential profit
- $10.32K
- Multiplier
- 4.19x
- User PnL
- $1.4K
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $9.52K
- Potential payout
- $13.32K
- Potential profit
- $3.79K
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $778.5
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.3K
- Potential profit
- $11.3K
- User PnL
- -$3.25K
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Current value
- $3.54K
- Potential payout
- $8.74K
- Potential profit
- $5.2K
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- -$2.14K
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.18K
- Potential profit
- $8.18K
- User PnL
- -$3.11K
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97%
- Current value
- $6.93K
- Potential payout
- $7.15K
- Potential profit
- $218.15
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $594.03
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.4K
- Potential profit
- $6.4K
- User PnL
- -$278.33
N
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $4.77K
- Potential payout
- $6.4K
- Potential profit
- $1.63K
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $241.09
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $4.88K
- Potential payout
- $6.3K
- Potential profit
- $1.42K
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- -$94.49
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $810.08
- Potential payout
- $6K
- Potential profit
- $5.19K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$652.95
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 68%
- Current value
- $3.92K
- Potential payout
- $5.77K
- Potential profit
- $1.85K
- Multiplier
- 1.47x
- User PnL
- $108.84
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.55K
- Potential profit
- $5.55K
- User PnL
- -$580.98
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $5.25K
- Potential payout
- $5.44K
- Potential profit
- $184.85
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $263.18
No position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.09K
- Potential profit
- $5.09K
- User PnL
- -$2.6K
Yes position
Will Russia capture Lyman by January 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.04K
- Potential profit
- $5.04K
- User PnL
- -$863.66
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.77K
- Potential profit
- $4.77K
- User PnL
- -$406.96
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $4.51K
- Potential payout
- $4.67K
- Potential profit
- $156.32
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $113.08
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.26K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $9.38K
No position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.77K
No position
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.08K
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $6.49K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.18K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $5.98K
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.81K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.6K
Yes position
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.48K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.02K
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.87K
No position
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.45K
No position
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.31K
No position
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.28K
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.79K
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.74K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.5K
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.48K
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.42K
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.29K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.29K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.19K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.15K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 33% 571.2 shares
- Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?Yes 27% 10 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 79% 3,164.56 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Yes 0.6% 7,158.6 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.8% 1,625.56 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes 8.5% 2,000 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?No 16% 2,000 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No 98.8% 3,223.06 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 5% 1,699.99 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 40.9% 2,000.02 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No 99.3% 545.82 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?No 32% 890.69 shares