No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $35
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $165
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- $1
Polymarket Trader
Neznakomec
0x9cdd720fbbb51b6c1df86707fa123b42631b9c95
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $245.31
- Realized PnL
- $428.53
- Win rate
- 73.9%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 23
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $89.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $10.5
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $9.5
No position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $83.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $16.5
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $2.5
No position
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$81.5
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $28.46
- Potential payout
- $32.34
- Potential profit
- $3.88
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $3.79
No position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $8.85
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $1.15
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.75
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $144.75
No position
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.74
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?
Ends Jan 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.63
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32
Yes position
Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?
Ends Feb 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.48
No position
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.2
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.57
No position
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.6
No position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6
No position
Will Russia capture Siversk before December?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6
Yes position
Will Biden finish his term?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.45
Israel position
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $2.95
Yes position
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.6
Yes position
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.8
No position
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?
Ends Feb 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.8
Yes position
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?
Ends Feb 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.09
Yes position
Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?
Ends Feb 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.36
Yes position
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech?
Ends Feb 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?No 68% 100 shares
- Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?No 88% 50.1 shares
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?Yes 0.1% 10 shares