Polymarket Trader

M8M8M

0x9d382c105e83e2ed433cac388c366599242d973d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $389.46
Realized PnL: $778.08
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 18
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 19.1%
Current value: $58.02
Potential payout: $304.57
Potential profit: $246.55
Multiplier: 5.25x
User PnL: -$1.98

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $28.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $271.5
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$4.5

Yes position

Will England win on 2026-06-23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $286.12
Potential profit: $286.12
User PnL: -$237

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 61.7%
Current value: $96.18
Potential payout: $156.01
Potential profit: $59.83
Multiplier: 1.62x
User PnL: -$3.82

Yes position

Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $97.62
Potential payout: $138.46
Potential profit: $40.85
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $7.62

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $7.04
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $92.96
Multiplier: 14.20x
User PnL: -$30.96

Yes position

Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $1.05
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $98.95
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Paris Hilton pregnant in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $8
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $92
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $5.65
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $94.35
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$1.45

Yes position

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $2.75
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $97.25
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: -$0.55

Yes position

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $0.95
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.05
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

US x China tariff agreement by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.75
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$22.75

No position

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $99.98
Potential profit: $99.53
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$8.75

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $50.06
Potential payout: $90.2
Potential profit: $40.14
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $4.06

No position

Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $84.11
Potential profit: $84.11
User PnL: -$49.62

No position

Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $1.9
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $48.1
Multiplier: 26.32x
User PnL: -$13.1

No position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $26.65
Potential payout: $41.97
Potential profit: $15.32
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: $1.65

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $4.4
Potential payout: $7.27
Potential profit: $2.87
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $0.4

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90

Yes position

Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $13B and $16B at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.2

No position

Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.16

Yes position

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $42.37

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 6?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.72

Yes position

Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.46

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $34

Yes position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.94

Yes position

Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.87

Yes position

Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.95

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.88

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.41

Yes position

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.29

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.8

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.46

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17

70k position

Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16

No position

Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.39

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.2

$80k position

Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.89

Yes position

Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.11

Yes position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?

Yes 64.1% 156.01 shares
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?

Yes 84% 138.1 shares
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?

Yes 96% 121.73 shares
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?

No 59% 84.1 shares
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23?

No 88% 50 shares
Will England win on 2026-06-23?

Yes 84% 119.05 shares
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?

Yes 99.7% 143.71 shares
Will England win on 2026-06-23?

Yes 82% 45.12 shares
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?

No 59% 66.66 shares
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?

Yes 69% 20.29 shares
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?

Yes 69% 101.45 shares
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?

No 60% 66.67 shares