Yes position
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of July 6 above $20?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $68.69
- Potential payout
- $69
- Potential profit
- $0.31
- User PnL
- $0.38
Polymarket Trader
Umbrar
0x9d658d58d071e8b9d2f8a68d9fd3481f74495650
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $68.69
- Realized PnL
- $6.44
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.74
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.47
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.44
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.42
Yes position
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.37
Yes position
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.26
No position
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.24
Y
Yes position
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?
Ends Jul 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.23
No position
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $11 end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
New "Stranger Things" episode released by May 31?
Ends Jan 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.14
No position
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 2 above $240?
Ends Mar 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.14
No position
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 15?
Ends Dec 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Over $80M committed to the Hurupay public sale?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
Will there be at least 175 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Will Artemis II launch by February 28?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?
Ends Oct 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will Moonshot have the best AI model on October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on June 5?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of July 6 above $20?Yes 99% 0.57 shares
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?Yes 99.6% 57 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?No 99.6% 104 shares
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $11 end of June?No 99.8% 77 shares
- Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30?No 99.7% 67 shares
- S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on June 5?No 99.9% 10 shares
- Will Trump visit China by June 30?Yes 97.4% 67 shares
- New "Stranger Things" episode released by May 31?No 99.8% 69 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?No 99.9% 51 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?No 99.7% 48.6 shares
- Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 2 above $240?No 99.8% 68.8 shares
- Will Artemis II launch by February 28?No 99.9% 38.94 shares