No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $14.78K
- Potential payout
- $15.64K
- Potential profit
- $860.39
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $582.39
Polymarket Trader
AlAhmeda
@AlAhmedaPM
0x9d736920e486176e7df7a76fa218f1ebd853216b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $144.64K
- Realized PnL
- $104.88K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 50
- Closed positions
- 50
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $12.98K
- Potential payout
- $13.16K
- Potential profit
- $177.63
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $740.35
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $42.68
- Potential payout
- $12.2K
- Potential profit
- $12.15K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$150.05
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $11.43K
- Potential payout
- $12.04K
- Potential profit
- $607.8
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $145.76
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $9.48K
- Potential payout
- $10.47K
- Potential profit
- $994.64
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.02K
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $10.01K
- Potential payout
- $10.16K
- Potential profit
- $147.33
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $136.56
Yes position
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $65
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $9.94K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $135
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $9.86K
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$15
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $7.96K
- Potential payout
- $8K
- Potential profit
- $36
- User PnL
- $12.01
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.1%
- Current value
- $7.48K
- Potential payout
- $7.78K
- Potential profit
- $303.56
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $155.81
Yes position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63%
- Current value
- $4.77K
- Potential payout
- $7.57K
- Potential profit
- $2.8K
- Multiplier
- 1.59x
- User PnL
- $1.4K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $4.86K
- Potential payout
- $7.2K
- Potential profit
- $2.34K
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- $41.28
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $5.52K
- Potential payout
- $6.46K
- Potential profit
- $936.96
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $136.01
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $27
- Potential payout
- $6K
- Potential profit
- $5.97K
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$313
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $4.63K
- Potential payout
- $5.9K
- Potential profit
- $1.27K
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- -$181.01
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $5.5K
- Potential payout
- $5.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.75
- User PnL
- $10.77
Yes position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11%
- Current value
- $573.68
- Potential payout
- $5.22K
- Potential profit
- $4.64K
- Multiplier
- 9.09x
- User PnL
- -$1.43K
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $4.41K
- Potential payout
- $5.1K
- Potential profit
- $688.95
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $27.26
Y
Yes position
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $4.89K
- Potential payout
- $4.9K
- Potential profit
- $7.35
- User PnL
- -$2.45
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $1.04K
- Potential payout
- $4.63K
- Potential profit
- $3.59K
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- -$67.9
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.7%
- Current value
- $352.24
- Potential payout
- $4.6K
- Potential profit
- $4.25K
- Multiplier
- 13.07x
- User PnL
- -$270.15
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.8%
- Current value
- $2.24K
- Potential payout
- $4.32K
- Potential profit
- $2.09K
- Multiplier
- 1.93x
- User PnL
- -$1.58K
Yes position
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $31.43
- Potential payout
- $3.7K
- Potential profit
- $3.67K
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$38.83
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.9%
- Current value
- $2.88K
- Potential payout
- $3.4K
- Potential profit
- $515.1
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $82.81
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $3.04K
- Potential payout
- $3.09K
- Potential profit
- $54.16
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $173.39
Yes position
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $24.65
- Potential payout
- $2.9K
- Potential profit
- $2.88K
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$461.4
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.8%
- Current value
- $407.93
- Potential payout
- $2.59K
- Potential profit
- $2.18K
- Multiplier
- 6.35x
- User PnL
- -$84.18
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $2.45K
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $47.5
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $287.5
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $2.48K
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $17.5
- User PnL
- $132.5
Yes position
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $212.5
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.29K
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$162.5
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $2.01K
- Potential payout
- $2.3K
- Potential profit
- $287.5
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $142.14
Yes position
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $175.09
- Potential payout
- $2.06K
- Potential profit
- $1.88K
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$560.48
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $2K
- Potential payout
- $2.01K
- Potential profit
- $11.06
- User PnL
- $16.3
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $2K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $5
- User PnL
- $3
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.2%
- Current value
- $163
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.84K
- Multiplier
- 12.27x
- User PnL
- -$63
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.9%
- Current value
- $1.91K
- Potential payout
- $1.95K
- Potential profit
- $41.93
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $26.33
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $1.52K
- Potential payout
- $1.89K
- Potential profit
- $367.93
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $223.88
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.4%
- Current value
- $319.89
- Potential payout
- $1.83K
- Potential profit
- $1.51K
- Multiplier
- 5.73x
- User PnL
- -$440.78
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.91
- Potential payout
- $1.82K
- Potential profit
- $1.82K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.67K
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.89
- Potential payout
- $1.78K
- Potential profit
- $1.78K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$753.49
No position
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $1.5K
- Potential payout
- $1.73K
- Potential profit
- $224.85
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $83.19
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $1.69K
- Potential payout
- $1.69K
- Potential profit
- $5.08
- User PnL
- $1.69
Yes position
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $20.44
- Potential payout
- $1.64K
- Potential profit
- $1.61K
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$19.74
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $248
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $1.35K
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$228
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $392
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $1.21K
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$852.53
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $1.32K
- Potential payout
- $1.58K
- Potential profit
- $259.89
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $194.9
No position
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Current value
- $1.52K
- Potential payout
- $1.56K
- Potential profit
- $45.26
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $37.13
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $1.45K
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $54
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $36.2
No position
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 74%
- Current value
- $1.02K
- Potential payout
- $1.38K
- Potential profit
- $358.19
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $183.1
No position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Current value
- $667.37
- Potential payout
- $1.38K
- Potential profit
- $708.65
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- -$264.48
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.7K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $7.6K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.09K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.57K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.08K
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.15K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.57K
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.96K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.86K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.54K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.18K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.1K
No position
Israel strikes Iran by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.06K
No position
Israel strikes Iran before September?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.86K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.86K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.84K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- $1.82K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.73K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.73K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.73K
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.68K
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.65K
No position
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.54K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.46K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15?
Ends Sep 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.42K
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.38K
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.24K
No position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22K
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.21K
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.21K
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.21K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.15K
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08K
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- $1.07K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05K
Yes position
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05K
Yes position
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02K
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?
Ends Aug 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1K
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $983.24
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $983.06
No position
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $963.95
No position
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $963.43
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $943.97
No position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- $926.05
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $871.3
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $869
Yes position
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $857.5
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $851.65
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $850.26
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?No 94.1% 379.46 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?No 80.5% 150 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?No 95.8% 100 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No 97.9% 87.23 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No 97% 150 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?No 99.4% 8,000 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No 99.2% 201.15 shares
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