Yes position
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $0.59
- Potential payout
- $9
- Potential profit
- $8.42
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Polymarket Trader
carla21
0x9e496ebffcc3899065f35fa7ff91a2b942d8a0b9
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $15.06
- Realized PnL
- $17.29
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $4.64
- Potential payout
- $4.64
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $3.62
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.72
- Potential profit
- $3.72
- User PnL
- -$1.11
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 65%
- Current value
- $2.34
- Potential payout
- $3.6
- Potential profit
- $1.26
- Multiplier
- 1.54x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $0.31
- Potential payout
- $2.97
- Potential profit
- $2.66
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.73
Yes position
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $1.42
- Potential payout
- $1.88
- Potential profit
- $0.46
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $0.12
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.66
- Potential payout
- $1.66
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.63
No position
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $1.12
- Potential payout
- $1.41
- Potential profit
- $0.29
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $0.09
No position
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $1.31
- Potential payout
- $1.37
- Potential profit
- $0.06
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.31
No position
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $0.99
- Potential payout
- $1.2
- Potential profit
- $0.22
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.07
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $0.68
- Potential payout
- $1.2
- Potential profit
- $0.52
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$0.42
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?
Ends Oct 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.9
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.57
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.76
Yes position
Will Donald Trump say "Maduro" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?
Ends Jan 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.87
Yes position
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.8
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.79
No position
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.69
Yes position
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 15?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.66
Yes position
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.6
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.59
Yes position
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.57
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.51
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.42
Yes position
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.42
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.42
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.38
No position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.38
Yes position
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.36
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.33
Yes position
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.29
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?
Ends Nov 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.27
No position
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?
Ends Nov 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.23
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.22
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Yes 71% 1.46 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes 61% 1.92 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes 69% 1.68 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Yes 56% 1.98 shares
- Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?No 88% 1.2 shares
- Major CEX insolvent in 2026?Yes 12% 9 shares
- U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?No 80% 1.53 shares
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 February 2-8?Yes 15.8% 6.9 shares
- Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategyYes 80% 1.34 shares
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?No 67.8% 1.59 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?No 98.2% 1.09 shares
- U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?No 65% 1.54 shares