Polymarket Trader

benrafa

0x9ef9ba52ccaa09a5d5a0b341b7ffea65af6e5840

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $270.58
Realized PnL: $1.51K
Win rate: 83.3%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 6
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.93K
Potential profit: $4.93K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.68K
Potential profit: $3.68K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.55K
Potential profit: $3.55K
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.17K
Potential profit: $3.17K
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $31
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.97K
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$19

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.96K
Potential profit: $1.96K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $909.09
Potential profit: $909.09
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $862.17
Potential profit: $862.17
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $762.13
Potential profit: $762.13
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $27.08
Potential payout: $644.69
Potential profit: $617.61
Multiplier: 23.81x
User PnL: -$72.92

Yes position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $20.29
Potential payout: $588.24
Potential profit: $567.94
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: -$79.71

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $47.22
Potential payout: $555.56
Potential profit: $508.33
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$52.78

Yes position

Will UK strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $555.56
Potential profit: $555.56
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $511.42
Potential profit: $511.42
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $82.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $417.5
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$17.5

Yes position

Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $452.44
Potential profit: $452.44
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 14?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $357.14
Potential profit: $357.14
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $10.57
Potential payout: $289.65
Potential profit: $279.08
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$14.43

No position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $270.27
Potential profit: $270.27
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $234.62
Potential profit: $233.69
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$49.06

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $44.39
Potential payout: $228.25
Potential profit: $183.85
Multiplier: 5.14x
User PnL: -$5.61

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $5.83
Potential payout: $185.19
Potential profit: $179.35
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: -$44.17

Yes position

Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $165.92
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$24.25

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $486.47

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $426.32

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $350.48

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $256.78

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET

Ends Feb 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.7

No position

Will the Cash initiative or counter-proposal be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$9.09

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?

Yes 11% 909.09 shares
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?

$80k 37% 135.15 shares
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?

Yes 19.6% 511.42 shares
Will the Cash initiative or counter-proposal be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?

No 0.3% 281.14 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?

Yes 36% 1,389.95 shares
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Yes 20% 500 shares
US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Yes 25% 200 shares
US forces enter Iran by March 14?

Yes 14% 357.14 shares
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 21.9% 228.25 shares
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 16.6% 150.6 shares
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 2.5% 2,000 shares
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Yes 27% 185.19 shares