Polymarket Trader

Ar1s

0x9f109cececac4fae3ee5bdd4ed68b45e17fb77b6

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $556.23
Realized PnL: $465.72
Win rate: 70.8%
Open positions: 2
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $548.53
Potential payout: $569.31
Potential profit: $20.78
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $41.85

Yes position

Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 35%
Current value: $7.7
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $14.3
Multiplier: 2.86x
User PnL: -$2.2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Over position

Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $253

England position

Norway vs. England: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $165.67

Spain position

Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.27

Yes position

France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8

Yes position

Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.13

Argentina position

Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.27

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.06

Under position

France vs. Spain: O/U 3.5

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.63

Yes position

Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.61

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.25

Norway position

Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.03

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.54

Over position

Mexico vs. England: O/U 4.5

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.38

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.32

Over position

Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 4.5

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1

Over position

Mexico vs. England: O/U 1.5

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.92

Under position

Argentina vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 0.5

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.35

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Norway?

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 3 France?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Morocco?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Norway?

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 3 France?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

France vs. Spain: Team to Advance

France 35.7% 13.99 shares
France vs. Spain: O/U 3.5

Under 65.5% 7.63 shares
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score

Yes 76% 49.99 shares
Michael Olise: 1+ assists AND Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals

20.5% 23.46 shares
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals AND France vs. Spain: Team to Advance

26.9% 17.91 shares
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score

Yes 60% 16.67 shares
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score

Yes 60% 33.33 shares
Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 4.5

Over 50% 2 shares
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC end in a draw?

Yes 45.1% 2.22 shares
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?

Yes 30% 16.67 shares
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?

Yes 31% 322.58 shares
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance

Switzerland 15% 664 shares