OpenAI position
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $169.5
- Potential payout
- $1.13K
- Potential profit
- $960.5
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- -$418.1
Polymarket Trader
ethosdev
0x9f618d317475b9de09ba44b9809ea98dae4fc03e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $244.68
- Realized PnL
- $2.07K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $67.81
- Potential payout
- $238
- Potential profit
- $170.19
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- -$20.25
Yes position
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $2.15
- Potential payout
- $195
- Potential profit
- $192.86
- Multiplier
- 90.91x
- User PnL
- -$97.31
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Current value
- $5.23
- Potential payout
- $10.36
- Potential profit
- $5.13
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- -$1.3
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Over position
Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 1.5
Ends Feb 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $414.44
No position
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $257.88
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $159.09
Yes position
Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $126.17
Yes position
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $115.96
Yes position
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on March 19?
Ends Mar 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $114.8
No position
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
Ends Mar 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.35
Yes position
Will Daylight launch a token by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 24%
- Multiplier
- 4.17x
- User PnL
- $91.04
No position
Will "Crime 101" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 17m?
Ends Feb 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $90.72
No position
Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be between $600M and $650M at market close on IPO day?
Ends Feb 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.72
Yes position
Will Howard Lutnick be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $75.14
Under position
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.22
Down position
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
Ends Feb 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.93
No position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $45.04
No position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45
Yes position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $39.95
Y
Yes position
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $33.03
Yes position
Will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $31.04
No position
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $29.76
Yes position
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.95
Yes position
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Multiplier
- 76.92x
- User PnL
- $26.2
Yes position
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- $23.04
No position
Will Grok be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.74
Down position
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
Ends Feb 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.26
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?No 87% 776 shares
- Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?No 89% 20 shares
- Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?No 89% 26 shares
- Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No 22% 534 shares
- Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No 22% 458 shares
- Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?No 87% 822 shares
- Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?No 84% 332 shares
- Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?No 84% 10 shares
- Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?No 83% 342 shares
- Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No 19% 992 shares
- Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No 17% 337 shares
- Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?No 16% 282 shares