Polymarket Trader

JoshuaDay9526

0x9f6a5fe74f6fe2b8276b64bc8bec0712ad6953e0

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $657.82
Realized PnL: $744.87
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $502
Potential profit: $502
User PnL: -$95.38

No position

Databricks IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 81%
Current value: $405.81
Potential payout: $501
Potential profit: $95.19
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $235.47

No position

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $241.5
Potential payout: $460
Potential profit: $218.5
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: -$2.3

Yes position

Will Jensen Huang say "Bubble" during NVIDIA keynote?

Ends Jan 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $306
Potential profit: $306
User PnL: -$67.32

Yes position

Will Jara win by 9-12%?

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $179
Potential profit: $179
User PnL: -$7.16

No position

Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-12-31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $175
Potential profit: $175
User PnL: -$159.25

Yes position

Will ENS win 2025 Uniswap Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $72
Potential profit: $72
User PnL: -$5.98

No position

Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during Pennsylvania events on December 9?

Ends Dec 9, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $65
Potential profit: $65
User PnL: -$44.85

Yes position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $2.23
Potential payout: $61
Potential profit: $58.77
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$35.59

Yes position

Will Trump say "Vicious" or "Brutal" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?

Ends Dec 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $60
User PnL: -$0.72

Yes position

US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $60
User PnL: -$1.08

Yes position

Will Trump say "Tariff" at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5?

Ends Dec 5, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $37
Potential profit: $37
User PnL: -$4.81

No position

Will Infinex launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $32
Potential profit: $32
User PnL: -$2.52

Yes position

Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $0.56
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $24.44
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$4.47

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.3
Potential profit: $16.3
User PnL: -$9.94

Yes position

Will Daniel Băluță get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13
Potential profit: $13
User PnL: -$1.82

Yes position

Will José Antonio Kast win between 16% and 20% of votes in the first round?

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $12
User PnL: -$2.28

No position

Kraken IPO closing market cap above $26B?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $5.34
Potential payout: $6
Potential profit: $0.66
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $1.08

Yes position

Maduro mugshot released by Monday?

Ends Jan 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.56
Potential profit: $5.56
User PnL: -$2.56

No position

Will GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Best Rap Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$2.49

Yes position

Will The Fate of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the #1 searched song on Google this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.31
Potential profit: $4.31
User PnL: -$0.91

Yes position

Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 33%
Current value: $1.32
Potential payout: $4
Potential profit: $2.68
Multiplier: 3.03x
User PnL: -$1.64

Yes position

AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.63
Potential profit: $2.63
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 53%
Current value: $1.06
Potential payout: $2
Potential profit: $0.94
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: $0.04

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Leavitt say "Baby" or "Pregnant" during the next White House press briefing?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $85.92

No position

Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.83

Yes position

Will PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.6

Yes position

Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $47.55

Yes position

Will Mike Kafka be fired by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.47

No position

Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 46%
Multiplier: 2.17x
User PnL: $44.22

Yes position

Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.24

Yes position

Will Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.75

Yes position

Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $30.02

No position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.72

Yes position

Will Fomo launch a token by September 30 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 15%
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: $26.19

Yes position

No one announced as next James Bond?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.9%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $25.01

Yes position

Will Union Progressiste pour le Renouveau (UPR) win the most seats in the 2026 Benin parliamentary election?

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.16

No position

Will Trump say "Inflation" at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5?

Ends Dec 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.54

Yes position

Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?

Ends Jan 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.84

Yes position

Will Anca Alexandrescu finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18.4

Yes position

Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Aug 11, 2026

Implied probability: 20%
Multiplier: 5.00x
User PnL: $17.92

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?

Ends Nov 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.63

No position

Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17.43

Yes position

Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17.05

Yes position

Will Naz Reid win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.63

Yes position

Will Ryan Coogler be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.24

Yes position

Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11

Yes position

Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.52

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?

No 94% 22 shares
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?

No 46% 13 shares
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?

No 46% 52 shares
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?

No 46% 136 shares
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?

No 20% 31 shares
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

No 69% 18 shares
Over $200B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?

No 58% 64 shares
Over $200B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?

No 59% 64 shares
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?

No 24% 201 shares
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?

No 32% 31 shares
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

No 53% 18 shares
Will Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?

No 70% 220 shares