Ttooot

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.75K
Potential profit: $3.75K
User PnL: -$2.41K

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.08K
Potential profit: $1.08K
User PnL: -$524.45

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 7.1%
Current value: $63.52
Potential payout: $889.68
Potential profit: $826.16
Multiplier: 14.01x
User PnL: $12.57

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $599.79
Potential profit: $599.79
User PnL: -$186.33

Yes position

Vanta IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 20%
Current value: $119.46
Potential payout: $597.28
Potential profit: $477.82
Multiplier: 5.00x
User PnL: $10.39

No position

Will Cisco's Networking revenue be above $7.5B in Q3?

Ends May 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $491.89
Potential profit: $491.89
User PnL: -$124.27

Yes position

Will the US federal government take a stake in Palantir Technologies Inc.?

Implied probability: 39%
Current value: $188.3
Potential payout: $482.81
Potential profit: $294.51
Multiplier: 2.56x
User PnL: $66.86

Yes position

Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $417.47
Potential profit: $417.47
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC or Bytedance?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $70.94
Potential payout: $405.38
Potential profit: $334.44
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $13.69

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $240.49
Potential profit: $240.49
User PnL: -$88.32

Yes position

Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 20%
Current value: $37.16
Potential payout: $185.81
Potential profit: $148.65
Multiplier: 5.00x
User PnL: -$3.98

Yes position

Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $12.04
Potential payout: $114.71
Potential profit: $102.67
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$1.61

Yes position

Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $3.86
Potential payout: $36.73
Potential profit: $32.87
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$0.31

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $29.96
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$2.36

No position

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on May 13?

Ends May 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.45
Potential profit: $13.45
User PnL: -$2.21

No position

Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $0.64
Potential payout: $9.13
Potential profit: $8.49
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$0.05

No position

Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$2.85

Yes position

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$0.05

No position

Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$3.7

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.16K

No position

Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?

Implied probability: 95.7%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $722.36

No position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June?

Implied probability: 90.4%
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $498.46

Yes position

Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 6.2%
Multiplier: 16.13x
User PnL: $482.03

Yes position

Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $383.55

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June?

Implied probability: 95%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $383.06

No position

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $365.47

Yes position

Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?

Implied probability: 95.3%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $328.48

Yes position

Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $321.42

No position

Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keynote?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $320.77

Yes position

Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $284.54

Yes position

Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in June?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 4.1%
Multiplier: 24.39x
User PnL: $227.02

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?

Implied probability: 97.5%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $226.76

No position

Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $204.47

Yes position

Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in June?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: $202.47

No position

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $194.74

No position

Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $170.81

Yes position

Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?

Implied probability: 4.4%
Multiplier: 22.99x
User PnL: $169.34

OpenAI position

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 27%
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: $163.08

Yes position

Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Oct 11, 2026

Implied probability: 15%
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: $161.58

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1%
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $151.31

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026?