Polymarket Trader

joember

0xa03201c619f89158f3e57f48bf0304cf70a7679e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $973.69
Realized PnL: $2.35K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 20
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $40.16
Potential payout: $892.53
Potential profit: $852.36
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$22.39

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $249.18
Potential payout: $284.77
Potential profit: $35.6
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: -$0.82

No position

Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $199.71
Potential payout: $212.46
Potential profit: $12.75
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $19.71

No position

US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $6.34
Potential payout: $183.68
Potential profit: $177.34
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: -$3.37

No position

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $143.11
Potential payout: $158.14
Potential profit: $15.02
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $23.83

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 21.1%
Current value: $26.95
Potential payout: $128.04
Potential profit: $101.09
Multiplier: 4.75x
User PnL: $1.95

No position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $63.89
Potential payout: $76.52
Potential profit: $12.63
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $3.89

No position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $31.75
Potential payout: $62.88
Potential profit: $31.12
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: $2.83

No position

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 58%
Current value: $33.65
Potential payout: $58.01
Potential profit: $24.36
Multiplier: 1.72x
User PnL: -$6.36

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $38.71
Potential payout: $55.7
Potential profit: $16.99
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $1.7

Yes position

Will Péter Magyar be TIME Person of the Year 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $4.77
Potential payout: $52.95
Potential profit: $48.19
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$17.23

Yes position

Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 28%
Current value: $13.04
Potential payout: $46.58
Potential profit: $33.54
Multiplier: 3.57x
User PnL: -$5.85

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $14.36
Potential payout: $42.86
Potential profit: $28.5
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: -$0.64

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $30.99
Potential payout: $39.47
Potential profit: $8.49
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $0.99

No position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $20.14
Potential payout: $36.28
Potential profit: $16.14
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $5.14

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 93.2%
Current value: $32.19
Potential payout: $34.54
Potential profit: $2.35
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $2.18

No position

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $10.36
Potential payout: $30.91
Potential profit: $20.56
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $6.62
Potential payout: $29.41
Potential profit: $22.79
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: -$8.38

No position

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $2.24
Potential payout: $9.35
Potential profit: $7.11
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: -$2.76

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $5.54
Potential payout: $5.62
Potential profit: $0.08
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.76

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $307.48

Yes position

Will Fidesz-KDNP win 36-40% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $286.4

Yes position

Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $204.24

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $200

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $154.41

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140.73

No position

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $125.94

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $87.29

Up position

XRP Up or Down - April 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.67

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.02

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.73

Yes position

Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.42

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.7

Yes position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.97

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.67

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.26

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.82

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.86

Yes position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.43

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.08

Yes position

Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.01

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.54

Team Spirit position

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.69

No position

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.23

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31

No 46% 62.87 shares
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

No 47% 10.64 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

No 76% 39.47 shares
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?

No 78.4% 76.52 shares
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31

No 42% 86.29 shares
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?

No 75.4% 114.81 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 1.3% 82.11 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 85% 5.61 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 1.3% 360.98 shares
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?

No 5.3% 183.68 shares
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 6.5% 138.88 shares
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

No 39% 25.64 shares