Laughing-Robot

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $6.71
Potential payout: $706.55
Potential profit: $699.84
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $5.71

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $2.96
Potential payout: $236.44
Potential profit: $233.48
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: $0.96

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $136.99
Potential profit: $136.99
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 21, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $2.31
Potential payout: $90.83
Potential profit: $88.53
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: $1.31

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 23, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $0.84
Potential payout: $73.13
Potential profit: $72.29
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$0.16

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $72.11
Potential profit: $72.11
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $2.34
Potential payout: $51.32
Potential profit: $48.99
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: -$2.66

No position

Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $26.32
Potential payout: $34.41
Potential profit: $8.09
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $6.32

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $33.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 29, 2026?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $0.31
Potential payout: $30.73
Potential profit: $30.42
Multiplier: 100.00x
User PnL: -$0.69

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $0.96
Potential payout: $27.03
Potential profit: $26.07
Multiplier: 28.25x
User PnL: -$4.04

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.23
Potential profit: $19.23
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $1.73
Potential payout: $18.18
Potential profit: $16.45
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$0.27

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-07-14?

Implied probability: 17.6%
Current value: $2.38
Potential payout: $13.51
Potential profit: $11.13
Multiplier: 5.68x
User PnL: -$2.62

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.36
Potential profit: $11.36
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.8
Potential profit: $9.8
User PnL: -$5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.26
Potential profit: $9.26
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.94
Potential profit: $7.94
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.78
Potential profit: $2.78
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.33
Potential profit: $2.33
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.94

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.63

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.45

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 14?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.83

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.16

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.76

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.16

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.63

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.87

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.7

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.43

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.26

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.17

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.22

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.69

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.35

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.96

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.79

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.7

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.83

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.57

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 14?