Yes position
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $65.25
- Potential payout
- $289.99
- Potential profit
- $224.74
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- -$104.75
Polymarket Trader
sandcastles
0xa0a1b505ae9e1a8547c952b629ab9aefe8d64ecb
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $516.35
- Realized PnL
- $447.54
- Win rate
- 70.8%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $109.42
- Potential payout
- $144.93
- Potential profit
- $35.51
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $9.42
Yes position
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $30.56
- Potential payout
- $138.89
- Potential profit
- $108.33
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- -$19.44
Yes position
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $49.32
- Potential payout
- $135.14
- Potential profit
- $85.81
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.68
Yes position
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 38%
- Current value
- $41.3
- Potential payout
- $108.7
- Potential profit
- $67.39
- Multiplier
- 2.63x
- User PnL
- -$8.7
Yes position
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $3.82
- Potential payout
- $84.92
- Potential profit
- $81.1
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$11.18
Yes position
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 48%
- Current value
- $39.34
- Potential payout
- $81.97
- Potential profit
- $42.62
- Multiplier
- 2.08x
- User PnL
- -$10.66
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $70
- Potential payout
- $70.18
- Potential profit
- $0.18
- User PnL
- $30
Anthropic position
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 81%
- Current value
- $46.5
- Potential payout
- $57.41
- Potential profit
- $10.91
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.8%
- Current value
- $48.09
- Potential payout
- $57.39
- Potential profit
- $9.3
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $8.09
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 23%
- Current value
- $12.74
- Potential payout
- $55.38
- Potential profit
- $42.65
- Multiplier
- 4.35x
- User PnL
- -$22.26
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $147.13
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108.62
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.43
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.88
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.19
No position
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.07
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.56
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.38
No position
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.69
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.85
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.72
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Edition
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.12
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.3
No position
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.97
No position
Russian strike on Poland by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.56
No position
NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.83
No position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.26
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
More EU sanctions on Russia by October 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$15
No position
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$25
No position
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$35
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?Yes 14.5% 34.4 shares
- Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Yes 54.1% 92.4 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes 63.2% 55.38 shares
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes 69% 144.93 shares
- Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Yes 37% 135.14 shares
- Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Yes 56.3% 142.2 shares
- Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?Yes 19.8% 50.52 shares
- Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Yes 72.2% 55.4 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 29.5% 101.86 shares
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes 69.7% 57.39 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 57% 70.18 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 28.5% 105.27 shares