Polymarket Trader

TheCornflakemerchant

0xa10b8c4f154fbbf1fda28563edf458914f798ec6

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $15.38K
Realized PnL: -$4.16K
Win rate: 54.5%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 22
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $9.85K
Potential payout: $358.24K
Potential profit: $348.39K
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: $1.46K

Yes position

Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $247.46
Potential payout: $44.99K
Potential profit: $44.75K
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$152.53

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.85K
Potential profit: $21.85K
User PnL: -$144.96

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.55K
Potential profit: $9.55K
User PnL: -$3.9K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.23K
Potential profit: $9.23K
User PnL: -$1.24K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.69K
Potential profit: $7.69K
User PnL: -$100

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.38K
Potential profit: $5.38K
User PnL: -$1.7K

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $4.36K
Potential payout: $5.16K
Potential profit: $799.39
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$147.03

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.98K
Potential profit: $4.98K
User PnL: -$1.5K

Yes position

Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.11K
Potential profit: $4.11K
User PnL: -$400

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 8?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.62K
Potential profit: $3.62K
User PnL: -$230

Yes position

Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.35K
Potential profit: $3.35K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $42.75
Potential payout: $2.95K
Potential profit: $2.91K
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$57.25

Yes position

Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 PGA Championship?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.78K
Potential profit: $2.78K
User PnL: -$80

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.77K
Potential profit: $2.77K
User PnL: -$54.12

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 16, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.5K
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.15K
Potential profit: $2.15K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.08K
Potential profit: $2.08K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.07K
Potential profit: $2.07K
User PnL: -$800

Yes position

Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 PGA Championship?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.01K
Potential profit: $2.01K
User PnL: -$80

No position

QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.8K
Potential profit: $1.8K
User PnL: -$150

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $1.6K
User PnL: -$250

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.45K
Potential profit: $1.45K
User PnL: -$350

No position

Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $882.03
Potential payout: $1.41K
Potential profit: $529.22
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $82.03

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.61K

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.43K

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $631.55

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $517.98

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $422.13

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $281

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $220.87

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $187.08

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $155.17

No position

Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League for the 2026-27 season?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $136.47

Yes position

Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $45.92

No position

Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.6

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$40.72

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$56.99

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$113.72

Yes position

Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$249.96

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$252.63

Yes position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$368.65

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$390.17

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$898.89

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: -$1.86K

No position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5.56K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 0.9% 44,993.21 shares
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?

Yes 17% 470.59 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 80% 481.46 shares
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 14% 0.46 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 46% 108.7 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 47% 212.77 shares
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?

Yes 36% 454.54 shares
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 17% 307 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 50% 160 shares
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 16% 406.85 shares
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 18% 35.27 shares
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?

Yes 22% 454.55 shares