Y
Yes position
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $267.99
- Potential payout
- $275
- Potential profit
- $7.01
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $3.71
Polymarket Trader
0xa14b...05e4
0xa14bf68614d94e49236f0f86eeb026f04ebe05e4
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $741.78
- Realized PnL
- $1.67K
- Win rate
- 84.2%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 19
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $227
- Potential payout
- $230.69
- Potential profit
- $3.69
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $4.15
No position
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $181.52
- Potential payout
- $183.91
- Potential profit
- $2.39
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $2.57
N
No position
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $50.44
- Potential payout
- $51.71
- Potential profit
- $1.27
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.7
Yes position
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $14.83
- Potential payout
- $14.83
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.09
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $918.03
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $201.79
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $150.45
Y
Yes position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $137.01
Y
Yes position
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.29
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.2
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.84
Yes position
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.03
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.91
Yes position
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.81
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.18
No position
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.33
Yes position
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.32
Yes position
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.56
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.25
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.09
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.02
No position
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.98
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ETUp 51% 2 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ETDown 48% 2.09 shares
- Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 0.1% 7,000 shares
- Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 99.9% 1,205.98 shares
- Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 99.8% 55.77 shares
- Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 99.7% 10.82 shares
- Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 99.6% 40 shares
- Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 99.7% 4,483.3 shares
- Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 99.6% 2,980.95 shares
- Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 99.5% 247.73 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 99.2% 105 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 99.3% 354.78 shares