Polymarket Trader

th2

0xa16354193f1f166db6cc24d932d8b091296ade8d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $139K
Realized PnL: $8.95K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $82.58K
Potential payout: $101.34K
Potential profit: $18.76K
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $1.06K

No position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.3%
Current value: $19.69K
Potential payout: $21.12K
Potential profit: $1.43K
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $463.14

No position

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $7.78K
Potential payout: $7.85K
Potential profit: $66.71
User PnL: $476.25

No position

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91%
Current value: $6.74K
Potential payout: $7.41K
Potential profit: $667.08
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $644.94

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.8%
Current value: $6.65K
Potential payout: $7.09K
Potential profit: $443.44
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $454.83

No position

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $6.4K
Potential payout: $7K
Potential profit: $594.99
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $335

No position

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $2.97K
Potential payout: $3.18K
Potential profit: $206.54
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $143.28

No position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 94.4%
Current value: $2.83K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $169.5
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$6.5

No position

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $1.13K
Potential payout: $1.47K
Potential profit: $345.81
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: -$7.36

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Ends Jun 30, 2027

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $906.01
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $129.43
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $5.18

No position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 86.3%
Current value: $517.5
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $82.5
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.9

No position

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $211.36
Potential payout: $355.23
Potential profit: $143.87
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: -$8.88

No position

MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.3%
Current value: $326.27
Potential payout: $332.09
Potential profit: $5.81
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $40.68

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 66%
Current value: $68.64
Potential payout: $104
Potential profit: $35.36
Multiplier: 1.52x
User PnL: $1.04

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $76.2
Potential payout: $90.18
Potential profit: $13.98
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $8.67

No position

Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $67.38
Potential payout: $67.89
Potential profit: $0.51
User PnL: $7.88

Yes position

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 81%
Current value: $37.35
Potential payout: $46.11
Potential profit: $8.76
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$1.84

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 28?

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.41K

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $832.03

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $643.1

Yes position

Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $630.69

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $611.34

Yes position

Will MrBeast hit 470 Million subscribers by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $609.76

No position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $609.13

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $370.52

Yes position

Will 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $310.01

Yes position

Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Best Art Direction at the 2025 Game Awards?

Ends Dec 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $284.42

No position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $242.96

Yes position

Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15?

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $241.89

Yes position

Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?

Ends Dec 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $239.63

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
User PnL: $215.06

Yes position

Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 31?

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $204.7

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $201.15

No position

DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $195

Yes position

Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $192.97

Yes position

Will Battlefield 6 win Best Audio Design at the 2025 Game Awards?

Ends Dec 11, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $186.33

No position

Will MrBeast hit 110 billion views by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $175.87

No position

Will Li Guyi perform at the Spring Festival Gala?

Ends Feb 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $171.72

Yes position

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?

Ends Dec 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $150

Yes position

Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Best Game You Suck At in the 2025 Steam Awards?

Ends Jan 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $115.06

Republican position

House control after 2024 election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.23

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 86.1% 600 shares
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 93.9% 1,000 shares
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Yes 65% 104 shares
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

No 87.6% 67.89 shares
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 74.9% 90.18 shares
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

No 93.8% 11 shares
Xi Jinping out before 2027?

No 92.2% 3,000 shares
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

No 93.8% 2,867.41 shares
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 94.9% 1,000 shares
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 94.9% 1,000 shares
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

No 76% 200 shares
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

No 99.6% 126 shares