Yes position
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.67K
- Potential profit
- $1.67K
- User PnL
- -$5
Polymarket Trader
Malte
0xa183b52af04fac527f301c729254eeb764f22663
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $51.89
- Realized PnL
- $380.08
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.15K
- Potential profit
- $1.15K
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $833.33
- Potential profit
- $833.33
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
SpaceX Flight 7 launch before February 2025?
Ends Jan 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $556.51
- Potential profit
- $556.51
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $398.88
- Potential profit
- $398.88
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $348.34
- Potential profit
- $348.34
- User PnL
- -$29
Yes position
Will Trump attend the launch?
Ends Jan 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $264.29
- Potential profit
- $264.29
- User PnL
- -$3.63
Yes position
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $238.57
- Potential profit
- $238.57
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $51.89
- Potential payout
- $182.12
- Potential profit
- $130.23
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- $11.89
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $155.56
- Potential profit
- $155.56
- User PnL
- -$2.4
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $114.82
- Potential profit
- $114.82
- User PnL
- -$1.75
Yes position
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $78.95
- Potential profit
- $78.95
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $75
- Potential profit
- $75
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $64.52
- Potential profit
- $64.52
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $59.44
- Potential profit
- $59.44
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $49.99
- Potential profit
- $49.99
- User PnL
- -$2.7
Yes position
Will OpenAI release an open source model before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $31.94
- Potential profit
- $31.94
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30.71
- Potential profit
- $30.71
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will three SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$2.58
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $28.01
- Potential profit
- $28.01
- User PnL
- -$4.3
Yes position
Will less than 4 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $27.77
- Potential profit
- $27.77
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $23.81
- Potential profit
- $23.81
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
GPT-5 not announced in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $210.43
Yes position
Will two SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $40.94
No position
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.67
Yes position
Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.04
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.46
Yes position
Will Romania win Group E?
Ends Jun 26, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.78
No position
Will Ukraine win Group E?
Ends Jun 26, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.5
No position
New Pope in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.1
No position
NVIDIA largest company before June 15?
Ends Jun 14, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.56
No position
Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.47
No position
Is $DJT real?
Ends Jun 21, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.16
No position
Iran Nuke in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.99
No position
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the debate?
Ends Jun 27, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.94
Yes position
Will an open-source AI model become Top 3 this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.25
Yes position
Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy?
Ends Jan 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.96
No position
Biden campaign accepts crypto donations before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.94
No position
Will Belgium win?
Ends Jun 17, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.76
Yes position
Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.55
No position
Biden asks the moderator to repeat a question during the debate?
Ends Jun 27, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.55
Yes position
OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.52
No position
Iran Nuke in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5
Yes position
No Trump coin reaches $1b?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.45
No position
Doge ETF approved by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33
Yes position
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.23
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 5.4% 20.51 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?No 24.4% 82.12 shares
- Will Elon Musk buy OpenAI in 2025?No 97.3% 5.2 shares
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Yes 1.7% 59.44 shares
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Yes 0.5% 200 shares
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Yes 1.3% 75 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No 6.2% 48.39 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?No 6.2% 16.13 shares
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31?Yes 0.3% 1,666.67 shares
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?Yes 3.8% 78.95 shares
- Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?No 92.3% 5.42 shares
- Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?No 31% 9.68 shares