Yes position
Will Medline not IPO by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Polymarket Trader
0xA198D40e667E9b8EE731919dfd1638782b29Ef93-1767296827712
0xa198d40e667e9b8ee731919dfd1638782b29ef93
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $34.46
- Realized PnL
- $12.84
- Win rate
- 79.2%
- Open positions
- 18
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Up position
XRP Up or Down - January 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $299.99
- Potential profit
- $299.99
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Estoril Praia end in a draw?
Ends Jan 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $111.11
- Potential profit
- $111.11
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $86.67
- Potential profit
- $86.67
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $12.23
- Potential payout
- $12.23
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $4.65
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $0.79
- Potential payout
- $8.27
- Potential profit
- $7.48
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$2.21
No position
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.63
- Potential profit
- $7.63
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $6.43
- Potential payout
- $7.11
- Potential profit
- $0.68
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.43
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $4.41
- Potential payout
- $4.41
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $2.91
No position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 80.4%
- Current value
- $2.3
- Potential payout
- $2.86
- Potential profit
- $0.56
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $0.3
No position
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.75
- Potential payout
- $1.75
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.75
No position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 79.2%
- Current value
- $1.36
- Potential payout
- $1.72
- Potential profit
- $0.36
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $0.36
No position
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $1.05
- Potential payout
- $1.05
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.05
- Potential payout
- $1.05
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.05
- Potential payout
- $1.05
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.04
- Potential payout
- $1.04
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.04
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
Ends Feb 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1
- Potential payout
- $1
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.5
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
Ends Feb 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1
- Potential profit
- $1
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2
No position
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?
Ends Jan 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.71
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.12
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
Ends Jan 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.04
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.04
Up position
XRP Up or Down - January 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.96
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
Ends Jan 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.85
Up position
Solana Up or Down - January 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.82
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
Ends Jan 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
Yes position
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.53
No position
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.47
Pistons position
Pistons vs. Cavaliers
Ends Jan 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.43
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
Ends Jan 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.41
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
Ends Jan 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.27
No position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.25
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
Ends Jan 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.09
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
Ends Jan 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0
No position
Will Indiana win the 2026 College Football National Championship?
Ends Jan 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
US bank failure by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.02
No position
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes 95% 1.05 shares
- Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%?No 95.6% 1.05 shares
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Estoril Praia end in a draw?Yes 0.9% 111.11 shares
- Will Trump deport less than 250,000?No 96.3% 1.04 shares
- Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025?Yes 1.2% 86.67 shares
- Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?No 53% 2.77 shares
- Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?Yes 55% 1 shares
- XRP Up or Down - January 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ETUp 1% 100 shares
- XRP Up or Down - January 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ETUp 1% 100 shares
- XRP Up or Down - January 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ETUp 1% 100 shares
- Will Medline not IPO by December 31, 2025?Yes 0.1% 1,500 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Yes 34% 4.41 shares