Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.5%
- Current value
- $12.3K
- Potential payout
- $32.81K
- Potential profit
- $20.51K
- Multiplier
- 2.67x
- User PnL
- $1.28K
Polymarket Trader
NefariousX
0xa1ed2ae1eaaa057b6d09204cbb0808ef78a4e774
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $12.53K
- Realized PnL
- $26.32K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.55K
- Potential profit
- $22.55K
- User PnL
- -$16.75K
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $227.86
- Potential payout
- $772.41
- Potential profit
- $544.55
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- $3.86
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.4K
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.36K
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.86K
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.81K
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.69K
No position
Will Anthony Joshua win via Decision?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.59K
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.56K
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.52K
Yes position
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.35K
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.24K
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $911.99
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $798.95
Yes position
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $788.1
No position
Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $716.89
No position
Will Anthony Joshua win in Round 2?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $607.23
No position
Will the Government shutdown end by November 7?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $557.24
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $554.72
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $529.69
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $480.95
No position
Brown University shooter arrested by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $459.44
Yes position
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?
Ends Nov 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $449.11
No position
Brown University shooter arrested by December 19?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $429.18
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $424.36
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes 29% 772.41 shares
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes 36% 2.78 shares
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes 35% 1,662.5 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 80.7% 2,795.14 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes 72.8% 2,795.15 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes 74% 1,013.51 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes 73% 15,063.07 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No 99.9% 11,845.84 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes 84% 3,571.27 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes 69% 2,897.48 shares
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes 35% 168.57 shares
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes 35% 2,840 shares