eme10

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $3.4
Potential payout: $1.7K
Potential profit: $1.7K
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$8.19

Yes position

Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $998.5
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C or higher on June 27?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $999.5
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $997.5
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $998.99
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $5.85
Potential payout: $899.98
Potential profit: $894.13
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$3.14

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.08
Potential payout: $717.92
Potential profit: $716.84
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $0.36

Yes position

Will Syria recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $499.98
Potential profit: $497.98
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $4.75
Potential payout: $499.98
Potential profit: $495.23
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $2.75

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $1.4
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $398.6
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$0.6

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $26
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $374
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $55.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $244.5
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $37.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $299.98
Potential profit: $299.53
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $297.54
Potential profit: $297.1
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $0.15

Yes position

Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $11.99
Potential payout: $218.04
Potential profit: $206.05
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$14.03

Yes position

Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $199.5
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $8.1
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $191.9
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: -$9.7

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 10.1%
Current value: $20.1
Potential payout: $199.99
Potential profit: $179.89
Multiplier: 9.95x
User PnL: -$6.2

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.55
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.45
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $3.45
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $96.55
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: -$1.55

Yes position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $1.2
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $98.8
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$1.8

Yes position

Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$7

Yes position

Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.35
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.65
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$0.45

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 10?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08K

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 10?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $899.48

No position

Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $473.91

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 9?

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $395.2

Yes position

Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $377.81

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 11?

Ends Mar 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $244.5

Yes position

Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $205.34

No position

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $168.26

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $149.25

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $143.25

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $127.27

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90.91

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82.48

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81

Up position

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on March 11?

Ends Mar 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.22

Up position

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 10?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.9

No position

Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $72.87

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?

Ends Mar 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $52.02

No position

Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?