No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $460.28
- Potential payout
- $582.64
- Potential profit
- $122.35
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $143.29
Polymarket Trader
0xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C1182-1760945846787
0xa2770432a5e6bd24c347c976b0d815db1f2c1182
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $460.28
- Realized PnL
- $525.69
- Win rate
- 79.2%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.16
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $99.3
No position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $77.97
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60
Yes position
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.97
Yes position
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.06
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.68
No position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by May 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17.81
No position
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $15.47
No position
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.14
No position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.17
No position
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $2.83
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.37
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.62
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.55
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.43
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?
Ends Feb 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.12
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?
Ends Feb 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.22
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.97
Yes position
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?No 89.3% 167.99 shares
- Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?No 99.5% 53.07 shares
- Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?No 94.2% 53.07 shares
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No 97.9% 1.02 shares
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No 97.9% 1.02 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 35% 26 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 41% 5 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 92.4% 154.91 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 96.8% 154.91 shares
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No 97.9% 1.02 shares
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No 98% 1.02 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 47.1% 24 shares