Polymarket Trader

HarvardInsider

0xa282f14c503d1ed3d11e67b84eee9dadb60a1cc2

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $0
Realized PnL: $12.09K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.2% from August to September 2022?

Ends Oct 13, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.12K
Potential profit: $6.12K
User PnL: -$2.97K

No position

Will ETH hit $2,000 by EOY?

Ends Dec 31, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.84K
Potential profit: $5.84K
User PnL: -$2.75K

Yes position

$ARB above $10 one week after launch?

Ends Mar 30, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.62K
Potential profit: $5.62K
User PnL: -$92.18

No position

Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.1% from August to September 2022?

Ends Oct 13, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.61K
Potential profit: $4.61K
User PnL: -$1.39K

Yes position

US Congress approve more Ukraine aid in 2023?

Ends Dec 31, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.59K
Potential profit: $4.59K
User PnL: -$426.35

Yes position

Trump heavier than 260 lbs?

Ends Sep 1, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.26K
Potential profit: $3.26K
User PnL: -$479.44

No position

Will 2024 have the hottest March on record?

Ends May 1, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.78K
Potential profit: $2.78K
User PnL: -$688.92

No position

US inflation >0.2% from Nov to Dec 2023?

Ends Jan 11, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.68K
Potential profit: $2.68K
User PnL: -$1.58K

$1800 position

Will $ETH hit $1,800 or $2,200 first?

Ends Jul 1, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.62K
Potential profit: $2.62K
User PnL: -$812.87

Yes position

Will @realDonaldTrump tweet by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.32K
Potential profit: $2.32K
User PnL: -$43.05

Yes position

Will FTX relaunch by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.28K
Potential profit: $2.28K
User PnL: -$60.13

No position

Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.2% from March to April 2022?

Ends May 11, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.17K
Potential profit: $2.17K
User PnL: -$942.99

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after its May meeting?

Ends May 2, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.01K
Potential profit: $2.01K
User PnL: -$30.33

No position

Arbitrum token FDV >$5b one week after launch?

Ends Mar 30, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$48

Yes position

Will a nuclear weapon detonate by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.99K
Potential profit: $1.99K
User PnL: -$169.81

No position

Trump mugshot by Sep 1?

Ends Sep 1, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.78K
Potential profit: $1.78K
User PnL: -$614.96

No position

Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?

Ends Mar 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.63K
Potential profit: $1.63K
User PnL: -$812.36

Yes position

US debt ceiling hike by June 1?

Ends Jun 1, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.45K
Potential profit: $1.45K
User PnL: -$613.55

Yes position

Will Elon and Zuck announce a fight?

Ends Jul 1, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.42K
Potential profit: $1.42K
User PnL: -$170.8

Yes position

Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the USA be above 200,000 again by August 1, 2022?

Ends Aug 8, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.33K
Potential profit: $1.33K
User PnL: -$248.9

Yes position

Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.2% from June to July 2023?

Ends Aug 9, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $1.3K
User PnL: -$436.74

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 0 bps after its May meeting?

Ends May 2, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.27K
Potential profit: $1.27K
User PnL: -$184.9

Yes position

Rollbit rug by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.14K
Potential profit: $1.14K
User PnL: -$33.87

No position

Will U.S. inflation be greater than 0.3% from March to April 2023?

Ends May 9, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $884.1
Potential profit: $884.1
User PnL: -$265.23

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

LayerZero airdrop in 2023?

Ends Dec 31, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.19K

Yes position

Will the US rescue at least one American hostage from Hamas by Oct 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.14K

Yes position

Sui Airdrop by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $833.19

Yes position

Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.3% from June to July 2022?

Ends Aug 10, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 801556.11x
User PnL: $785.97

Yes position

Will a fourth US bank fail by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $640.14

Yes position

Will China report a record high 7-day COVID-19 case average by May 1?

Ends May 5, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $595.39

Yes position

Will $ETH be above $3,000 on May 1, 2022?

Ends May 1, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 1625870.86x
User PnL: $517.95

Yes position

Will the price of a barrel of crude oil be $105 or more on April 15, 2022?

Ends Apr 15, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $410.22

No position

Will the price of a barrel of crude oil be $115 or more on March 15, 2022?

Ends Mar 15, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $401.61

Yes position

Oscars 2022: Will Jessica Chastain win Best Actress?

Ends Mar 27, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $388.57

No position

Will the Fed raise rates again in 2023?

Ends Dec 31, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $364.39

No position

BTC above $28,000 at end of August?

Ends Aug 31, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $354.9

No position

Will there be a US government shutdown by November 19?

Ends Nov 19, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $333.15

No position

Will the price of a barrel of crude oil be $100 or more on April 25, 2022?

Ends Apr 25, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $328.44

Yes position

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be President of Ukraine on April 22, 2022?

Ends Apr 22, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $322.3

Yes position

Bitcoin above $65,000 on July 26?

Ends Jul 26, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $314.97

No position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after its March meeting?

Ends Mar 22, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $311.46

No position

Will a fourth US bank fail by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $297.35

Yes position

Will the fully diluted market cap of BAYC’s $APE token be higher than $10 billion a week after its launch?

Ends Aug 8, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $286.52

Yes position

Will the price of Polygon (MATIC) be above $1.45 on April 29th, 2022?

Ends Apr 29, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 1765503.36x
User PnL: $286.46

No position

Will a barrel of crude oil close at $100 or more on May 4, 2022?

Ends May 4, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 1459380.14x
User PnL: $279.16

No position

Fed rate cut by May 1?

Ends May 1, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $255.1

No position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after its June meeting?

Ends Jun 13, 2023

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $231.75

No position

Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.5% from June to July 2022?

Ends Aug 10, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $227.72

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency?

Yes 28% 347.85 shares
Winning candidate also wins popular vote?

No 32% 5 shares
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency?

Yes 28% 400 shares
Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election?

Yes 70% 300 shares
Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election?

Yes 65% 300 shares
Bitcoin above $65,000 on July 26?

Yes 92% 642.18 shares
Bitcoin above $65,000 on July 26?

Yes 43% 642.18 shares
2024 July hottest on record?

No 16% 1,412.75 shares
2024 July hottest on record?

No 16% 313.12 shares
2024 July hottest on record?

No 37% 950 shares
2024 July hottest on record?

No 37% 500 shares
2024 July hottest on record?

No 37% 300 shares