mrdonaldo

Implied probability: 29%
Current value: $58.78
Potential payout: $202.7
Potential profit: $143.92
Multiplier: 3.45x
User PnL: -$16.22

Yes position

Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $15.87
Potential payout: $186.66
Potential profit: $170.79
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$55.06

Yes position

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $46.63
Potential payout: $182.85
Potential profit: $136.22
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$20.69

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 45%
Current value: $51.14
Potential payout: $113.64
Potential profit: $62.5
Multiplier: 2.22x
User PnL: -$23.86

No position

Will John Pulskamp win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?

Ends Nov 22, 2026

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $101.78
Potential payout: $103.07
Potential profit: $1.29
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $1.78

U 84.5 position

Will the Toronto Blue Jays win more than 84.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?

Ends Oct 5, 2026

Implied probability: 70%
Current value: $71.34
Potential payout: $101.91
Potential profit: $30.57
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: -$3.66

No position

Will Aljaž Ivačič win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?

Ends Nov 22, 2026

Implied probability: 89.1%
Current value: $89.68
Potential payout: $100.7
Potential profit: $11.03
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: -$10.32

U 78.5 position

Will the Athletics win more than 78.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?

Ends Oct 5, 2026

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $62.53
Potential payout: $95.47
Potential profit: $32.94
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: -$12.47

No position

Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Implied probability: 92.8%
Current value: $75.8
Potential payout: $81.73
Potential profit: $5.93
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.8

Yes position

Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $8.5
Potential payout: $80.95
Potential profit: $72.45
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$18.21

Yes position

Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $70.21
Potential payout: $80.7
Potential profit: $10.49
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: -$4.79

Yes position

Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $53.41
Potential payout: $75.76
Potential profit: $22.35
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $3.41

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $63.68
Potential profit: $63.53
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$23.97

Yes position

Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award?

Ends Nov 13, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $22.85
Potential payout: $59.36
Potential profit: $36.51
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: $4.45

No position

Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $49.05
Potential payout: $49.35
Potential profit: $0.3
User PnL: $11.55

Yes position

Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $40.53
Potential payout: $48.54
Potential profit: $8.01
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$2.47

Yes position

Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.4
Potential payout: $47.62
Potential profit: $47.21
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$0.6

No position

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 88.3%
Current value: $39.87
Potential payout: $45.18
Potential profit: $5.31
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $2.37

No position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $0.43
Potential payout: $44.87
Potential profit: $44.44
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$17.07

No position

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $37.72
Potential payout: $43.61
Potential profit: $5.89
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.22

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $38.55
Potential payout: $41.67
Potential profit: $3.13
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.04

U 80.5 position

Will the Houston Astros win more than 80.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?

Ends Oct 5, 2026

Implied probability: 62%
Current value: $24.63
Potential payout: $39.73
Potential profit: $15.1
Multiplier: 1.61x
User PnL: -$5.16

No position

Will Sam Burns win the 2026 TOUR Championship?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.8%
Current value: $23.97
Potential payout: $25.3
Potential profit: $1.33
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$1.03

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $374.16

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on February 24?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $210.64

No position

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $168.03

Yes position

Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.27

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104.44

No position

Will Target Q1 comparable sales growth be below -1%?

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.35

Yes position

Will Hamnet win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $100.55

Yes position

Will Kate Hudson win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $87.57

Yes position

Will Blue Moon win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $78.15

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $76.05

No position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on May 17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $69.72

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.43

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $57.7

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $54.69

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.55

No position

Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $51.6

Yes position

Will Frankenstein win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $49.02

Yes position

Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $42.04

Yes position

Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 24?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $37.44

Yes position

Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1)

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.44

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $33.84

Yes position

Will Emma Stone win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?