Polymarket Trader

0xa2cd...2e8c

0xa2cdf97a42fa94ac2f19af1fe680754743ab2e8c

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $8.77K
Realized PnL: $5.77K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 12
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97%
Current value: $3.91K
Potential payout: $4.03K
Potential profit: $121
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $2.76

No position

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $2.3K
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $200
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $10

No position

Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $1.11K
Potential payout: $1.12K
Potential profit: $8.96
User PnL: $30.24

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 83.8%
Current value: $927.54
Potential payout: $1.11K
Potential profit: $179.31
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: -$61.64

Yes position

Kash Patel out by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50%
Current value: $105.06
Potential payout: $210.13
Potential profit: $105.06
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: -$58.84

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $198.9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $1.1
User PnL: $3.6

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $171
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $29
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $43

Yes position

Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.79
Potential payout: $112.3
Potential profit: $111.51
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$9.88

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 91%
Current value: $22.75
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $2.25
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $3.75

Yes position

Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05?

Ends Aug 11, 2026

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $8
Potential payout: $8.99
Potential profit: $0.99
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.27

No position

Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $7.59
Potential payout: $7.68
Potential profit: $0.09
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.14

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 91.7%
Current value: $3.44
Potential payout: $3.76
Potential profit: $0.31
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $869

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $329.09

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $300.12

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $294.53

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $284.01

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $268.63

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $253.56

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $249.74

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $246.36

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $240.96

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $233.18

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $211.71

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $198.12

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $190.54

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $188.15

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $182.77

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $178.35

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $169.23

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $165.65

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $163.28

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $147.04

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $144.4

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $133.86

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.57

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

No 96.6% 166.59 shares
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

No 97.5% 39.32 shares
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

No 97.2% 127.31 shares
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Up 61% 4 shares
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Up 70% 4 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET

Down 10% 26.87 shares
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET

Up 3% 44.77 shares
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET

Up 6% 24.56 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Up 56% 2 shares
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET

Up 29% 4.43 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET

Up 26% 11.96 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET

Up 30% 44.8 shares