Polymarket Trader

0xa2d4D41a5a468E4A736D9f7B9E02c2669c5Cf7Cc-1763423429608

0xa2d4d41a5a468e4a736d9f7b9e02c2669c5cf7cc

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $16.16
Realized PnL: $53.95
Win rate: 53.8%
Open positions: 19
Closed positions: 13
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Mistral have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $715.76
Potential profit: $715.76
User PnL: -$1.22

Yes position

Will Moonshot have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$1.2

No position

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $367.86
Potential profit: $367.86
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $257.73
Potential profit: $257.73
User PnL: -$4.07

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $137.83
Potential profit: $137.83
User PnL: -$7.78

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$7

No position

GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $2.95
Potential payout: $89.29
Potential profit: $86.34
Multiplier: 30.30x
User PnL: -$2.05

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $13.21
Potential payout: $51.81
Potential profit: $38.6
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $3.21

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$6

No position

Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $14.29
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14
Potential profit: $14
User PnL: -$1.12

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.86
Potential profit: $13.86
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Epstein client list released in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $12.5
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$1.2

No position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.69
Potential profit: $7.69
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.35
Potential profit: $4.35
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.85
Potential profit: $3.85
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Trump praise Zohran Mamdani on Friday?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.86
Potential profit: $2.86
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.7

Yes position

Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $23.48

Down position

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.51

Yes position

Jair Bolsonaro in jail by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.22

No position

AI bubble burst in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80.6%
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $0.21

Yes position

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7%
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$0.36

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.6

No position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.2

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.6

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?

Yes 26% 3.85 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?

Yes 23% 4.35 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

No 5.6% 89.29 shares
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

No 19.3% 51.81 shares
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?

Yes 12% 50 shares
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?

Yes 7% 100 shares
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?

No 12% 10 shares
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?

Yes 1.6% 199.6 shares
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?

Yes 1.5% 58.13 shares
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?

Yes 7.2% 557.77 shares
AI bubble burst in 2026?

No 64% 3.44 shares
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?

Yes 27% 14.81 shares