Polymarket Trader

ArcClanker

0xa2e95a54c738ff9d070888584c593ee94bd46af7

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $126.17
Realized PnL: $959.23
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 8
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $11.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $88.5
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$8.5

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 34%
Current value: $23.98
Potential payout: $70.53
Potential profit: $46.55
Multiplier: 2.94x
User PnL: -$16.02

Max Holloway position

UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $39.1
Potential payout: $59.7
Potential profit: $20.6
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: -$0.9

Meta position

OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 71.5%
Current value: $42.11
Potential payout: $58.9
Potential profit: $16.79
Multiplier: 1.40x
User PnL: $2.11

Yes position

Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.31
Potential profit: $34.31
User PnL: -$15

No position

Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $13.89
Potential profit: $13.88
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.99

No position

Will Conor McGregor win by KO or TKO?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 71%
Current value: $9.47
Potential payout: $13.33
Potential profit: $3.87
Multiplier: 1.41x
User PnL: -$0.53

Yes position

Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.87
Potential profit: $10.87
User PnL: -$5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $273.27

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $154.04

No position

Epstein client list released in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104.66

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.82

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.5

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.16

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.61

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.74

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.43

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.41

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.09

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.69

No position

Will Kast win by 10% to 15%?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.67

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.55

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.39

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.05

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.86

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.25

Belgium position

United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.28

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.93

No position

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.99

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.84

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.02

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?

Meta 67.9% 58.9 shares
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

No 36% 13.89 shares
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance

Belgium 47% 21.28 shares
Will Conor McGregor win by KO or TKO?

No 75% 13.33 shares
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)

Max Holloway 67% 59.7 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 94.9% 42.15 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 83.1% 12.23 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 72% 27.78 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?

Yes 95.4% 92.72 shares
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Yes 97.8% 40.22 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Yes 95.4% 58.66 shares
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Yes 98% 40.21 shares