Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $137.28
- Potential payout
- $54.91K
- Potential profit
- $54.78K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$433.48
Polymarket Trader
ToadLord
0xa3df2a941dfd47005aaa4942e128ac37312b6f87
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $175.98
- Realized PnL
- $57.18K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.08K
- Potential profit
- $22.08K
- User PnL
- -$401.17
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.2%
- Current value
- $38.7
- Potential payout
- $1.76K
- Potential profit
- $1.72K
- Multiplier
- 45.45x
- User PnL
- -$1.76
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.67K
- Potential profit
- $1.67K
- User PnL
- -$14.55
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $1.6K
- User PnL
- -$79.39
Belal Muhammad position
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card)
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $463.15
- Potential profit
- $463.15
- User PnL
- -$214.84
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.3K
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.54K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.74K
Charles Oliveira position
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $799.01
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $752.55
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $424.88
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $369.56
Cody Garbrandt position
UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight, Prelims)
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $362.16
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $289
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $284.87
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $279.83
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $233.5
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $225
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $195.55
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $188.02
Dariush position
UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano
Ends Jun 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $177.43
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $152.71
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $139.82
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $139.69
Strickland position
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card)
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $137.51
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $125
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $118.98
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $113.64
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.48
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Yes 2.2% 19 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?Yes 0.2% 426.06 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Yes 0.5% 438.18 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Yes 2% 500 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?Yes 0.3% 5,513.85 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Yes 0.4% 4,000 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Yes 2% 123.56 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Yes 2.1% 443.96 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Yes 0.7% 98.89 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Yes 2.2% 50 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Yes 0.7% 3,450.41 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?Yes 0.3% 1,150.18 shares