Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $21.15
- Potential payout
- $3.85K
- Potential profit
- $3.83K
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$78.85
Polymarket Trader
0xA50C5C5D7834E665deF9f85309DBf957D644f75D-1771592092775
0xa50c5c5d7834e665def9f85309dbf957d644f75d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.84K
- Realized PnL
- $6.23K
- Win rate
- 66.7%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 15
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.7K
- Potential profit
- $2.7K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $178.13
- Potential payout
- $1.88K
- Potential profit
- $1.7K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$121.88
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $1.58K
- Potential payout
- $1.67K
- Potential profit
- $91.72
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $775.88
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.63K
- Potential profit
- $1.63K
- User PnL
- -$300
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Current value
- $61.25
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $1.19K
- Multiplier
- 20.41x
- User PnL
- -$38.75
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.11K
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Iran leadership change by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $833.33
- Potential profit
- $833.33
- User PnL
- -$300
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $714.29
- Potential profit
- $714.29
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Israel strike 2 countries in March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $676.5
- Potential profit
- $676.5
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $4.69
- Potential payout
- $625
- Potential profit
- $620.31
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$95.31
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $416.67
- Potential profit
- $416.67
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $295
- Potential profit
- $295
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $3.03
- Potential payout
- $252.42
- Potential profit
- $249.39
- Multiplier
- 83.33x
- User PnL
- -$46.97
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.14K
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.36K
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.23K
Yes position
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $709.09
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $666.22
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $365.21
Yes position
Will Trump say "Obama" during the State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $199.63
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $183.87
Yes position
Will Trump say "Witkoff" during the State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112.12
Movsar Evloev position
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card)
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.86
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Trump say "Putin" during the State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$150
Yes position
Will Trump say "President Xi" during the State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$150
Yes position
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during the State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$400
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 38.7% 774.74 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 56% 892.86 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?Yes 2.6% 3,846.15 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Yes 8% 1,250 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Yes 16% 1,875 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?Yes 18% 1,111.11 shares
- Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?Yes 22% 909.09 shares
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes 62% 483.87 shares
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?Yes 17% 1,176.47 shares
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?Yes 22% 455.32 shares
- UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card)Movsar Evloev 70% 142.86 shares
- Netanyahu out by June 30?Yes 16% 625 shares