Yes position
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $115
- Potential profit
- $115
- User PnL
- -$0.92
Polymarket Trader
0xa535...a220
0xa535a98acd4d857f87bad8d67424ea414240a220
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $343.01
- Realized PnL
- $204.93
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.65
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.35
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.35
Yes position
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.65
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.35
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.35
Yes position
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $1.37
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $81.96
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- $0.37
No position
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $62.01
- Potential payout
- $62.04
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $5.45
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $49.93
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $0.08
- User PnL
- $1.02
No position
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $45.21
- Potential payout
- $45.28
- Potential profit
- $0.07
- User PnL
- $8.21
No position
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $42.8
- Potential payout
- $42.86
- Potential profit
- $0.06
- User PnL
- $12.79
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $2.02
- Potential payout
- $37.04
- Potential profit
- $35.02
- Multiplier
- 18.35x
- User PnL
- $0.02
Yes position
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $32.02
- Potential profit
- $32.02
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 26%
- Current value
- $8.13
- Potential payout
- $31.25
- Potential profit
- $23.13
- Multiplier
- 3.85x
- User PnL
- -$1.88
Yes position
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $28.57
- Potential profit
- $28.57
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.79
- Potential profit
- $26.79
- User PnL
- -$0.38
No position
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $26.48
- Potential payout
- $26.51
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $6.48
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.6%
- Current value
- $5.04
- Potential payout
- $24.52
- Potential profit
- $19.48
- Multiplier
- 4.87x
- User PnL
- -$0.96
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $23.49
- Potential payout
- $23.53
- Potential profit
- $0.04
- User PnL
- $5.49
No position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $19.33
- Potential payout
- $22.47
- Potential profit
- $3.15
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$0.67
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $5.8
- Potential payout
- $19.66
- Potential profit
- $13.86
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- $0.69
Yes position
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $1.85
- Potential payout
- $19.61
- Potential profit
- $17.75
- Multiplier
- 10.58x
- User PnL
- $0.85
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $11.89
- Potential payout
- $19.33
- Potential profit
- $7.44
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $0.89
No position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $9.91
- Potential payout
- $18.18
- Potential profit
- $8.27
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
No position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $14.91
- Potential payout
- $18.07
- Potential profit
- $3.16
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
Yes position
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.43
- Potential profit
- $17.43
- User PnL
- -$7
No position
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 73%
- Current value
- $11.55
- Potential payout
- $15.82
- Potential profit
- $4.27
- Multiplier
- 1.37x
- User PnL
- $0.44
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.11
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.4
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.33
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.57
Yes position
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.31
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.25
Yes position
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.13
Yes position
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.69
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.62
Yes position
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.98
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.54
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.43
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.42
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.15
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.84
Yes position
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.82
Yes position
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.35
Yes position
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?
Ends May 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.31
Yes position
Will Felicia win Melodifestivalen 2026?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.24
No position
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.17
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.95
Yes position
Maduro out by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.85
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.78
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.7
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No 55% 18.18 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 57% 17.54 shares
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 20.7% 4.83 shares
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 5.4% 37.04 shares
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No 89% 22.47 shares
- Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?Yes 63% 3.17 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 56% 1.79 shares
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Yes 75% 6.67 shares
- Starmer out by June 26, 2026?Yes 84% 2.38 shares
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yes 98% 5.1 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 87% 5.75 shares
- Starmer out by June 26, 2026?Yes 80% 2.5 shares