Yes position
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $2.8K
- Potential payout
- $431.33K
- Potential profit
- $428.53K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $266.56
Polymarket Trader
AiBird
0xa58d4f278d7953cd38eeb929f7e242bfc7c0b9b8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $5.7K
- Realized PnL
- $200.13K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $1.58K
- Potential payout
- $186.3K
- Potential profit
- $184.71K
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$93.15
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $250.15
- Potential payout
- $71.47K
- Potential profit
- $71.22K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- $35.74
Yes position
Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.65K
- Potential profit
- $22.65K
- User PnL
- -$65.5
Yes position
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.65K
- Potential profit
- $19.65K
- User PnL
- -$57
Yes position
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.65K
- Potential profit
- $19.65K
- User PnL
- -$57.11
Yes position
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.65K
- Potential profit
- $19.65K
- User PnL
- -$57.11
Yes position
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.65K
- Potential profit
- $19.65K
- User PnL
- -$57
Yes position
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.65K
- Potential profit
- $19.65K
- User PnL
- -$57.11
Yes position
Will Michael Bloomberg win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.65K
- Potential profit
- $19.65K
- User PnL
- -$57.11
Yes position
Will Zellnor Myrie win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.65K
- Potential profit
- $19.65K
- User PnL
- -$57
Yes position
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.39K
- Potential profit
- $17.39K
- User PnL
- -$50.81
Yes position
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $615.36
- Potential payout
- $13.67K
- Potential profit
- $13.06K
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$331.24
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.38K
- Potential profit
- $13.38K
- User PnL
- -$372.68
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $451.56
- Potential payout
- $12.76K
- Potential profit
- $12.3K
- Multiplier
- 28.25x
- User PnL
- $50.51
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.6K
- Potential profit
- $10.6K
- User PnL
- -$129.56
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$3.15
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$3.15
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Barron Trump as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$3.15
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$3.15
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$3.15
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$3.15
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$3.15
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$3.15
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- $45.18K
No position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $23.45K
Yes position
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21.86K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?
Ends Mar 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.99K
Yes position
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.56K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.55K
Yes position
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $6.03K
Yes position
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists?
Ends Apr 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.75K
Yes position
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?
Ends Jan 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.43K
Yes position
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- $5.4K
Yes position
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $5.15K
Yes position
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.09K
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- $4.85K
Yes position
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- $4.61K
Yes position
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.19K
Yes position
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- $3.84K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?
Ends Mar 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.51K
Yes position
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- $3.26K
Yes position
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.12K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.04K
Yes position
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?
Ends Feb 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.77K
No position
Will Real Madrid win La Liga?
Ends May 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.68K
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.48K
Yes position
Will the Steelers win Super Bowl 2025?
Ends Feb 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.31K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Sarah Elfreth be the Democratic nominee for MD-03?No 15.5% 503.26 shares
- Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?No 85.2% 315.24 shares
- Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference?Yes 32.2% 121.42 shares
- Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference?No 19.6% 275.76 shares
- Will Warsh say "Rate" or "Cut" during June Press Conference?No 4% 181.87 shares
- Tread FDV above $100M one day after launchYes 27% 29.08 shares
- Tread FDV above $100M one day after launchYes 23.6% 806.28 shares
- Tread FDV above $80M one day after launchYes 38% 674.11 shares
- Tread FDV above $150M one day after launchYes 13.8% 133.49 shares
- Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Yes 72.7% 95.98 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 0.3% 71,470.38 shares
- Tread FDV above $40M one day after launchYes 56.3% 207.11 shares