Yes position
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $152.69
- Potential payout
- $2.35K
- Potential profit
- $2.2K
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$347.31
Polymarket Trader
fulgenziomayer
0xa5ac1c37c356cd7595ca2f036899453ed3dc1776
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $221.38
- Realized PnL
- $168.16
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $44.82
- Potential payout
- $689.57
- Potential profit
- $644.75
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$10.95
Yes position
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $556.81
- Potential profit
- $556.81
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $214.29
- Potential profit
- $214.29
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $140.89
- Potential profit
- $140.89
- User PnL
- -$25.91
Yes position
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Current value
- $23.86
- Potential payout
- $75.76
- Potential profit
- $51.89
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- -$1.14
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $62.5
- Potential profit
- $62.5
- User PnL
- -$8.75
Yes position
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.71
- Potential profit
- $14.71
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.64
- Potential profit
- $9.64
- User PnL
- -$6.75
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.33
Yes position
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.3%
- Multiplier
- 8.89x
- User PnL
- $20
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.78
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.85
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.54
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.49
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.3
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.19
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.25
No position
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.81
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.15
No position
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.92
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.7
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.33
Yes position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.14
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.82
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.37
Yes position
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.11
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.04
No position
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.75
Yes position
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.72
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.32
Yes position
US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.23
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Yes 7% 439.57 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No 94% 14.18 shares
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes 12% 111.11 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 78% 12.82 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Yes 14% 62.5 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 70% 9.64 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No 91% 5.21 shares
- Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?Yes 0.9% 556.81 shares
- Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May?Yes 68% 14.71 shares
- Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?No 69% 18.75 shares
- Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?Yes 20% 75 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?No 72.3% 13.89 shares