Yes position
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $15.3K
- Potential payout
- $1.8M
- Potential profit
- $1.78M
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- $500.25
Polymarket Trader
risk-manager
0xa61ef8773ec2e821962306ca87d4b57e39ff0abd
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $175.49K
- Realized PnL
- $1.98M
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $832.34K
- Potential profit
- $832.34K
- User PnL
- -$1.61K
Yes position
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $1.39K
- Potential payout
- $556.79K
- Potential profit
- $555.4K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- $110.25
Yes position
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $2.93K
- Potential payout
- $450K
- Potential profit
- $447.08K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $225.45
Yes position
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $2.59K
- Potential payout
- $398.46K
- Potential profit
- $395.87K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $199.63
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $183.37
- Potential payout
- $366.75K
- Potential profit
- $366.56K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$72.16K
Yes position
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $416.69
- Potential payout
- $166.67K
- Potential profit
- $166.26K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- $38.33
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $375
- Potential payout
- $150K
- Potential profit
- $149.63K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$29.63K
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $75
- Potential payout
- $150K
- Potential profit
- $149.93K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$29.93K
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 25.1%
- Current value
- $26.89K
- Potential payout
- $107.33K
- Potential profit
- $80.45K
- Multiplier
- 3.99x
- User PnL
- -$7.02K
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.8%
- Current value
- $3.3K
- Potential payout
- $48.92K
- Potential profit
- $45.61K
- Multiplier
- 14.81x
- User PnL
- -$1.15K
Yes position
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $299.47
- Potential payout
- $46.07K
- Potential profit
- $45.77K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $69.11
No position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $29.53K
- Potential payout
- $34.97K
- Potential profit
- $5.44K
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $1.31K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $31.86K
- Potential payout
- $32.04K
- Potential profit
- $176.22
- User PnL
- $2.38K
Yes position
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $195
- Potential payout
- $30K
- Potential profit
- $29.81K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $67.65
No position
Will England win on 2026-06-17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $13.05K
- Potential payout
- $30K
- Potential profit
- $16.95K
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $149.99
No position
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $8.6K
- Potential payout
- $29.14K
- Potential profit
- $20.55K
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- -$145.72
No position
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Current value
- $10.35K
- Potential payout
- $20.49K
- Potential profit
- $10.14K
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- -$102.45
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $1.82K
- Potential payout
- $19.16K
- Potential profit
- $17.34K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$1.01K
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $7.81K
- Potential payout
- $18.38K
- Potential profit
- $10.57K
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- $5.77K
Yes position
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.08K
- Potential profit
- $18.08K
- User PnL
- -$36.16
Yes position
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $134.76
- Potential payout
- $17.97K
- Potential profit
- $17.83K
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$8.97
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $16.98K
- Potential payout
- $17.08K
- Potential profit
- $102.47
- User PnL
- $678.82
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $1.43K
- Potential payout
- $15K
- Potential profit
- $13.58K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$824.99
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- $673.49K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $193.3K
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $188.63K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $114.17K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.07K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $93.15K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $61.98K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $58.9K
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.94K
No position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $56.21K
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $52.08K
No position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $51.04K
Yes position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $41.63K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.95K
No position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $35.82K
No position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $33.92K
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.6%
- Multiplier
- 6.43x
- User PnL
- $28.71K
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 16.2%
- Multiplier
- 6.19x
- User PnL
- $22.96K
Yes position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.9%
- Multiplier
- 14.60x
- User PnL
- $16.7K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?
Ends Jun 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.33K
Yes position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.21K
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.96K
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October?
Ends Nov 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.16K
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.61K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 0.1% 150,000 shares
- Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?No 29% 30,000 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 0.1% 21,410.59 shares
- Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?Yes 80% 11,624.78 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 0.8% 15,143.59 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 0.2% 9,989.81 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 0.2% 319,382.58 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 98.5% 6,999.99 shares
- Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 0.8% 135,888.79 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 0.1% 6,310.16 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 0.1% 278,165.57 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 0.5% 1,245.93 shares