Po1yBot-pPMdcaJCwe

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $84.96
Potential payout: $114.04
Potential profit: $29.08
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $5.87

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 20.9%
Current value: $23.69
Potential payout: $113.64
Potential profit: $89.94
Multiplier: 4.80x
User PnL: $13.69

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $57.62
Potential payout: $78.4
Potential profit: $20.78
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $3.17

Yes position

Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 in June?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $1.38
Potential payout: $67.48
Potential profit: $66.1
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$7.23

Yes position

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in June?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $1.57
Potential payout: $65.6
Potential profit: $64.03
Multiplier: 41.67x
User PnL: -$9.43

No position

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $25.09
Potential payout: $63.51
Potential profit: $38.43
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $0.09

Yes position

Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 end of June?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.38
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $62.13
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$4.63

Yes position

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $740 in June?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.28
Potential payout: $55
Potential profit: $54.73
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$4.68

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $6.62
Potential payout: $52.99
Potential profit: $46.37
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $0.95

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $30.81
Potential payout: $48.52
Potential profit: $17.71
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: $0.86

Yes position

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 end of June?

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $3.64
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $41.82
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$1.36

No position

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $43.02
Potential payout: $45.05
Potential profit: $2.03
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $3.02

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $36.31
Potential payout: $44.02
Potential profit: $7.7
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $1.36

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 59%
Current value: $23.46
Potential payout: $39.76
Potential profit: $16.3
Multiplier: 1.69x
User PnL: $3.66

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $13.9
Potential payout: $31.23
Potential profit: $17.33
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: -$6.05

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.14
Potential payout: $24.75
Potential profit: $24.61
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$2.34

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June?

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $5.63
Potential payout: $19.75
Potential profit: $14.12
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: $1.87

No position

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $15.67
Potential payout: $18.33
Potential profit: $2.66
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $5.77

No position

Trump meets with Putin by December 31?

Implied probability: 65%
Current value: $10.16
Potential payout: $15.63
Potential profit: $5.47
Multiplier: 1.54x
User PnL: $0.16

No position

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Ends Aug 20, 2026

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $5.06
Potential payout: $12.82
Potential profit: $7.76
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $12.38
Potential payout: $12.45
Potential profit: $0.07
User PnL: $2.48

No position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 79.2%
Current value: $8.82
Potential payout: $11.14
Potential profit: $2.32
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: -$1.18

No position

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 62%
Current value: $5.96
Potential payout: $9.62
Potential profit: $3.65
Multiplier: 1.61x
User PnL: $0.96

No position

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $5.31
Potential payout: $8.77
Potential profit: $3.46
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $0.31

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140.34

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.65

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.71

France position

Spread: France (-2.5)

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.47

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.31

Yes position

Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.7

No position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.08

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $4.81

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: $4.55

Justin Gaethje position

UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.26

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.13

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.67

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.65

No position

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.4

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.7

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.38

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.36

Yes position

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.05

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.03

Yes position

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.98

No position

Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of June?

Implied probability: 99%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $1.61

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.4

No position

Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $80 end of June?