Polymarket Trader

Elfajad

0xa6ea028639279651bb5abf570a2de1412ec7b02a

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $28.07
Realized PnL: $7.36K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 5
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $11.4
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $588.6
Multiplier: 52.63x
User PnL: $10.8

No position

Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $5.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $494.75
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$0.25

Over position

Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $323.56
Potential profit: $323.56
User PnL: -$84.13

Yes position

Will Uzbekistan concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $248.21
Potential profit: $248.21
User PnL: -$11.35

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $11.42
Potential payout: $53.11
Potential profit: $41.69
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$0.51

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.24K

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $688.73

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $484.92

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $483.07

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $204.51

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $165.84

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $129.24

Yes position

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $105.11

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.8

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $80.16

No position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $60.36

Yes position

Will "Sinners" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.44

No position

Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $54.61

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $52.16

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.3

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $46.36

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $45.97

No position

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.84

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET

Ends Feb 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.16

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

Ends Feb 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.92

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 17?

Ends Feb 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.27

No position

Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39

Yes position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $28.47

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?

Yes 45% 89 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?

Yes 66% 89 shares
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Yes 0.8% 1,040 shares
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28?

Yes 6% 200 shares
Will Uzbekistan concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Yes 0.1% 96.02 shares
Will Uzbekistan concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Yes 7.2% 150 shares
Will Uzbekistan concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Yes 2.5% 194.23 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?

Yes 32% 112 shares
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?

Yes 8% 151 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?

Yes 34% 112 shares
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in June 2026?

Yes 10.8% 278.42 shares
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?

Yes 1.1% 245 shares