Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $84.75K
- Potential profit
- $84.75K
- User PnL
- -$149.5
Polymarket Trader
CLaY123456
0xa7572021ecc1fab253fd8023d7b99f464cfbf01f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $139.6
- Realized PnL
- $1.33K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 13
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.29K
- Potential profit
- $9.29K
- User PnL
- -$715.48
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$86
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$9
Yes position
Hyperliquid listed on Binance in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $119.82
- Potential payout
- $647.68
- Potential profit
- $527.86
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$71.65
Yes position
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $477.54
- Potential profit
- $477.54
- User PnL
- -$31.04
Yes position
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q2 2026
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $101.01
- Potential profit
- $100.96
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$12.07
Yes position
US recession by end of 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $12.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $87.5
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$12.5
Yes position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5%
- Current value
- $4.95
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $95.05
- Multiplier
- 20.20x
- User PnL
- -$2.55
No position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $91.52
- Potential profit
- $91.52
- User PnL
- -$22.61
Yes position
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q2 2026
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.6%
- Current value
- $2.27
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $27.74
- Multiplier
- 13.25x
- User PnL
- -$4.64
No position
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $1.63
- Potential profit
- $1.62
- Multiplier
- 142.86x
- User PnL
- -$1.13
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $248.02
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- $154.04
No position
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- User PnL
- $130.69
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $126.6
No position
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110.52
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108.36
Yes position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $94.92
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.63
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.58
Yes position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $40
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $29.1
No position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $25.03
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $19.79
No position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $17.18
Yes position
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.9
No position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.09
No position
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 74%
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $11.45
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.42
Yes position
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8
Yes position
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.85
Yes position
US military draft authorized in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- $3.5
Yes position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.29
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.21
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Yes 7.5% 100 shares
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?No 7.1% 79.53 shares
- US military draft authorized in 2026?Yes 8% 650 shares
- Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?No 46% 43.14 shares
- Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?No 35.3% 16.85 shares
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No 17% 1,109 shares
- Epstein client list released by June 30?Yes 2% 1,526.35 shares
- Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?No 32.4% 73.9 shares
- Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?Yes 30% 200 shares
- Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?No 66% 500 shares
- Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?No 39.9% 500 shares
- Will Trump visit China by May 31?No 25% 1,321.62 shares