No position
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.17K
- Potential profit
- $1.17K
- User PnL
- -$3
Polymarket Trader
TrueLeoman
0xa763d25bf1385840853e847d4bcfeeb121ef633b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $134.85
- Realized PnL
- $141.88
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 18
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.32
- Potential payout
- $90.91
- Potential profit
- $90.59
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$0.68
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $55.56
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $23.41
- Potential payout
- $45.45
- Potential profit
- $22.05
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- $13.41
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $43.46
- Potential payout
- $43.87
- Potential profit
- $0.42
- User PnL
- $33.46
Yes position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $3.47
- Potential payout
- $27.78
- Potential profit
- $24.31
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$6.53
No position
Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.82
- Potential profit
- $24.82
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.6%
- Current value
- $13.94
- Potential payout
- $23.81
- Potential profit
- $9.87
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- -$6.06
No position
Will Trump say "Honor" during events with Japanese PM?
Ends Mar 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21.05
- Potential profit
- $21.05
- User PnL
- -$4
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.23
- Potential profit
- $19.23
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.59
- Potential profit
- $18.59
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $0.36
- Potential payout
- $16.67
- Potential profit
- $16.31
- Multiplier
- 46.73x
- User PnL
- -$0.64
Yes position
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $3.31
- Potential payout
- $14.08
- Potential profit
- $10.77
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$6.69
No position
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 3+ times during events with Japanese PM?
Ends Mar 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.08
- Potential profit
- $13.08
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $12.95
- Potential payout
- $12.99
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $2.95
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $12.02
- Potential payout
- $12.05
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $2.02
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $11.67
- Potential payout
- $11.82
- Potential profit
- $0.15
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $1.67
Yes position
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $9.94
- Potential payout
- $11.63
- Potential profit
- $1.69
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$0.06
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.86
No position
Will Trump say "Most Favored Nation" during Ohio visit?
Ends Mar 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.83
No position
Will Trump say "President Xi" during the State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.63
No position
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Japanese PM?
Ends Mar 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.78
Yes position
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.17
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.24
Yes position
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 37%
- Multiplier
- 2.70x
- User PnL
- $5.05
No position
Will Trump say "Toyota" during events with Japanese PM?
Ends Mar 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.7
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.6
No position
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $3.55
No position
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.86
No position
Will Trump say "Job" 25+ times during Women's History Month event?
Ends Mar 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.81
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.7
No position
Will Trump say "Eli Lilly" during Ohio visit?
Ends Mar 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.58
No position
Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times during Ohio visit?
Ends Mar 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.46
No position
Will Bernie Sanders say "Zuckerberg" or "Bezos" 8+ times during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.12
No position
Will Trump say "Shit" or "Ass" this week? (February 22)
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.11
No position
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 28?
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.06
No position
Will Trump say "Somali" or "Somalia" or "Somalian" during King Charles visit?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.94
No position
Will Trump say "Shakespeare" during King Charles visit?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.94
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.72
No position
Will Trump say "Reagan" during the State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.67
No position
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.49
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Yes 6% 16.67 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?No 18% 55.56 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 84.6% 11.82 shares
- Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes 86% 11.63 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes 58% 17.24 shares
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 36% 27.78 shares
- Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 1.1% 90.91 shares
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No 84% 23.81 shares
- Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Yes 71% 14.08 shares
- Will Trump say "Shakespeare" during King Charles visit?No 72.1% 6.94 shares
- Will Trump say "Somali" or "Somalia" or "Somalian" during King Charles visit?No 72% 6.94 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No 73% 13.7 shares