undertaker07

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $259.99
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $3.74K
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$155.91

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.1%
Current value: $226.12
Potential payout: $2.25K
Potential profit: $2.02K
Multiplier: 9.95x
User PnL: -$116.92

No position

Will Trump visit China by May 15?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.75K
Potential profit: $1.75K
User PnL: -$18.71

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.7K
Potential profit: $1.7K
User PnL: -$1.03K

Yes position

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.19K
Potential profit: $1.19K
User PnL: -$94.4

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.07K
Potential profit: $1.07K
User PnL: -$836.59

Yes position

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in September?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.06K
Potential profit: $1.06K
User PnL: -$46.42

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.05K
Potential profit: $1.05K
User PnL: -$38.72

Zimbabwe position

T20 World Cup: India vs Zimbabwe

Ends Mar 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $999.99
User PnL: -$12

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 8.2%
Current value: $73.35
Potential payout: $900
Potential profit: $826.65
Multiplier: 12.27x
User PnL: -$26.05

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $301.33
Potential payout: $850
Potential profit: $548.68
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: $152.81

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $820.26
Potential profit: $820.26
User PnL: -$411.18

No position

Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $690.28
Potential payout: $807.34
Potential profit: $117.06
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $135.85

No position

Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $755.57
Potential profit: $755.57
User PnL: -$190.85

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 18.1%
Current value: $135.38
Potential payout: $750
Potential profit: $614.63
Multiplier: 5.54x
User PnL: $37.66

Yes position

Will one person dissent the December Fed decision?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $700.6
Potential profit: $700.6
User PnL: -$61.05

Yes position

Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $700
Potential profit: $700
User PnL: -$350

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.9%
Current value: $41.3
Potential payout: $700
Potential profit: $658.7
Multiplier: 16.95x
User PnL: -$25.15

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 14?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $650
Potential profit: $650
User PnL: -$25.7

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $515.2
Potential payout: $640
Potential profit: $124.8
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $9.6

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $38.7
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $561.3
Multiplier: 15.50x
User PnL: -$14.7

Yes position

Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $572.56
Potential profit: $572.56
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $550
Potential profit: $550
User PnL: -$31.4

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $766.76

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $721.47

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $560

Yes position

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $540.5

No position

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $512.61

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $440.45

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $417.83

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $411.1

Knicks position

Spurs vs. Knicks

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $397.18

Yes position

Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $391.81

Yes position

Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $324.34

No position

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $281.47

Yes position

Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $278.51

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $254.8

Yes position

Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $203.07

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $199.2

No position

US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?

Ends Jan 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $191.99

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $171.54

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $167.9

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $158.7

Yes position

Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?

Ends Feb 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $131.97

No position

Another US military action against Iran before 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $128.99

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108.29

No position

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?